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Valuation · Ford · WZ · 2013-18
Ford Fiesta ST
1.6L turbo four · 134 kW / 240 Nm · 6sp manual · FWD
CONSIDERRated within the under $30k band · 33 of 46 at this money
Research estimate
$18,900
Must gain each year to break even
+14.8%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
40/100
Scored against the under $30k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Researched
No Australian transaction of any kind
$18,900
$10,868 lowhigh $21,812
Modelled estimate
No recorded Australian sale stands behind this figure. Treat the level as indicative and the structure as the analysis.
Measured across this library, a value with no Australian result behind it runs high about seven times in ten, by a median of ten per cent. Read this one as a ceiling rather than a midpoint.
Looking at a Fiesta for sale?
Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.
Should make, typical example
$18,900
At about 100,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.
No Australian sale stands behind this value, so treat the figure as indicative.
We will not sell a report on this car. The check above stays free.
Price history
Today $18,900 · modelled median at five years $17,708
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $14,110 to $19,867
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($10,868 to $21,812). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.
The verdict
A defensible case with reservations. Scores 40/100, ranking 33 of 46 in the under $30k band. Liquidity is the strongest input, scarcity the weakest.
Running it costs about $3,330 a year (17.6% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $3,860 a year.
The model's five year median is $17,708, a -6.3% move, with the tenth percentile at $10,868.
Value is research, not a measurement. Treat the level as indicative and the structure as the analysis.
Evidence
Researched0 recorded sales
Off its peak
-12%
Value band
wide
No external evidence. A modelled estimate whose structure is more useful than its level.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$3,860 a year all in, -6.3% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity requires a decade of attrition
Negotiate from$18,900
Recorded sales
No individual sales are logged for this vehicle.
Cars of this kind trade mainly through dealers and classifieds rather than auction houses, so no verified sale record exists to publish. The value is a modelled estimate.
Score breakdown
Against the under $30k band median
46 cars in band · ink tick marks the medianOwnership economics30% of total
36/100+1
Scarcity25% of total
13/100-28
Demand durability20% of total
43/100-13
Liquidity15% of total
74/100+15
Risk resilience10% of total
64/100+27
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 40/100. Medians are computed live from the 46 cars currently in the under $30k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
36/100Baseline80 pts
− 17.6% of value a year to run-44 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)36 pts
Scarcity25% weight
13/100Baseline5 pts
+ 3,400 survivors+8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)13 pts
Demand durability20% weight
43/100Baseline20 pts
+ Best-of-breed press consensus+15 pts
+ Hot hatch class shrinking+8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)43 pts
Liquidity15% weight
74/100Baseline10 pts
+ 42 days on market+42 pts
+ 540 sales a year+22 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)74 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
64/100Baseline90 pts
− 1.6 EcoBoost head cracking-16 pts
− 12% volatility-10 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)64 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.
What it costs to own · about 9,524 km a year
Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$3,330a year
Share of value per year
17.6%
Scheduled servicing$62019%
Tyres, annualised$54016%
Registration and CTP$75023%
Insurance$86026%
Sinking fund (failure table)$56017%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$19,656
Running costs × 5 years$16,650
Median exit, net of selling cost$17,008
All-in annualised over 5 years$3,860/yr
Share of value per year20.4%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
14.8%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
-1.3%a year
The projection falls 16.1 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$18,900
Stamp duty$756
Running costs x 5 years$16,650
Selling cost at exit, 3.7% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$37,702
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.
Specification
Engine1.6L turbo four
Power / torque134 kW / 240 Nm
0-100 km/h6.9 s
Transmission6sp manual
DriveFWD
Kerb weight1,197 kg
Built worldwide120,000
Delivered to Australia5,200
Effective AU survivors3,400
Australian sales / year540
Typical days on market42 days
Launch price$25,990
What moves the price on this model
Colour hierarchy
Molten Orange+4%
Spirit Blue+3%
Frozen White0%
Options
Unmodified, no tune+5%
Molten Orange or Spirit Blue premium paint+2%
Odometer sensitivity±1.2% per 10,000 km vs 100,000 km
Applied on top of these
Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.
Projected value in five years
Projected value at five years
$17,708
-6.3% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $18,900.
Even odds it lands between $14,110 and $19,867.
$10,868 lowhigh $21,812
The shaded range is even money and 41% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A weaker five year outlook than 77% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: -$1,192 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $16,650.
Duty and expected selling costs: $1,456.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $19,300, or $3,860 a year.
The projected value fall is added to the running cost. Depreciation is the larger number here.
The case for and against
The case for
Universally rated the best small hot hatch of its decade and the class is now extinct at the price.
The case against
Head cracking risk on the 1.6 EcoBoost is real and a known-issue discount already sits in the price.
Known faults and risks
Risk 1Cylinder head cracking
Risk 2Thin dealer parts support
Risk 3First-car abuse in the fleet
Cylinder head replacement$4,200
Rear beam bush wear$600
Similar cars, and what they cost to run
What we will not sell you
We will not price a Ford Fiesta against an advertisement.
No Australian transaction stands behind this value. A spec-adjusted figure built on it would look precise and would not be, so the report is refused instead of sold with a caveat. That goes for this car and 87 others. Everything above is free and stays free.
Watch this model
Told when the next one is called.
One line of email when this desk publishes a call on a Ford Fiesta ST, or records a new Australian sale of one. Nothing else, no schedule, and on a quiet model you may hear nothing for months, which is itself worth knowing about a car you are chasing.
Free. One address, one model, and no account.