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Price opinion from advertisements and recorded sales. Not an inspection or a certified valuation.
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Reference photograph of a Toyota Land Cruiser FJ40
Valuation · Toyota · 40 Series · 1960-84

Toyota Land Cruiser FJ40

4.2L NA petrol inline six (2F) · 100 kW / 285 Nm · 4sp manual · 4WD
CONSIDERRated within the $30k to $100k band · 54 of 94 at this money
Model value
$57,500
Must gain each year to break even
+9.8%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
53/100
Scored against the $30k to $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Thin
One to three recorded Australian sales
$57,500
$40,079 lowhigh $60,159
Calibrated to a thin record
Four published Shannons results, May 2018 to December 2019, and every one of them is pre-boom. Two are catalogued as modified and one is a diesel BJ40, which leaves a single unmodified petrol FJ40 in the whole published set.

Looking at a Land Cruiser for sale?

Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.

Should make, typical example
$57,500
At about 169,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.

Odometer only. Colour, options, history, condition and the photographs move it further, and that is what the report reads.

A person reads the advertisement and its photographs. Usually back within 48 hours. Read a real listing report

Price history

Today $57,500 · modelled median at five years $50,621
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $45,076 to $55,638
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($40,079 to $60,159). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.

The verdict

A defensible case with reservations. Scores 53/100, ranking 54 of 94 in the $30k to $100k band. Liquidity is the strongest input, risk resilience the weakest.
Running it costs about $5,900 a year (10.3% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $8,036 a year.
The model's five year median is $50,621, a -12.0% move, with the tenth percentile at $40,079.
Value calibrated to a thin record. Treat the level as provisional.
Evidence
Thin3 recorded sales
Off its peak
-30%
Value band
moderate
Multiple recorded transactions plus an aggregate source. Treat the level as reliable.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
This value sits above every recorded sale logged for the model. That is the specific error calibration keeps finding, so treat it as a ceiling rather than a mid-point.
Short term (1-5 years)$8,036 a year all in, -12.0% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$57,500

Recorded sales

Every recorded observation, and when
4 rows on record
$91k$48k$4k
20182020202220242026
the value this record published, year by yearnow $58ksoldcontext, excluded
Every row, with its price and note (4) ↓
Library value against the sold record
3 sales · median $17,500
Value $57,500
$13,500$19,500
The library value sits above the highest recorded sale; the evidence note above explains why.
Dec 2019Shannons$13,500Context, excluded
SOLD. Dec 2019, Shannons Melbourne Summer Classic, Lot 27. FJ40 SWB 'Modified' wagon with a Holden 253 V8 transplant, excluded from this record; no year of manufacture in the results sheet. Made the same money as an unmodified 1974 car, which is the clearest evidence in the file that engine swaps destroy value.
Nov 2018Shannons$19,500Sold
SOLD. Nov 2018, Shannons Sydney Spring Classic, Lot 9. 1980 BJ40 SWB wagon, diesel.
Jul 2018Shannons$13,500Sold
SOLD. Jul 2018, Shannons Melbourne Winter Classic, Lot 56. 1974 FJ40 SWB 'Modified' wagon.
May 2018Shannons$17,500Sold
SOLD. May 2018, Shannons Sydney Classic at the Hot Rod and Custom Auto Expo, Lot 8. 1976 FJ40 SWB wagon.
3 completed Australian sales of 4 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.

Score breakdown

Against the $30k to $100k band median
94 cars in band · ink tick marks the median
Ownership economics30% of total
59/100+4
Scarcity25% of total
40/100-13
Demand durability20% of total
70/100+4
Liquidity15% of total
71/100+19
Risk resilience10% of total
8/100-28
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 53/100. Medians are computed live from the 94 cars currently in the $30k to $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
59/100
Baseline84 pts
− 10.3% of value a year to run-25 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)59 pts
Scarcity25% weight
40/100
Baseline20 pts
+ 6,500 survivors estimated in Australia+20 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)40 pts
Demand durability20% weight
70/100
Baseline56 pts
+ Sold new here in numbers and remembered as a local working vehicle+14 pts
+ Parts and knowledge support deeper than anything else in this tranche+8 pts
− Six and a half thousand survivors is a large pool to choose from-8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)70 pts
Liquidity15% weight
71/100
Baseline12 pts
+ 60 days on market+35 pts
+ 450 sales a year+24 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)71 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
8/100
Baseline44 pts
− Structural rust is $55,000 and a chassis another $25,000-18 pts
− Engine swaps are everywhere and they cut the money hard-10 pts
− Imported cars are sold here as Australian-delivered ones-8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)8 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.

What it costs to own · about 3,130 km a year

Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$5,900a year
Share of value per year
10.3%
Scheduled servicing$1,33023%
Tyres, annualised$90015%
Registration and CTP$71012%
Insurance$1,68028%
Sinking fund (failure table)$1,28022%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$59,800
Running costs × 5 years$29,500
Median exit, net of selling cost$49,121
All-in annualised over 5 years$8,036/yr
Share of value per year14.0%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
9.8%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
-2.5%a year
The projection falls 12.3 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$57,500
Stamp duty$2,300
Running costs x 5 years$29,500
Selling cost at exit, 2.6% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$91,692
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.

Specification

Engine4.2L NA petrol inline six (2F)
Power / torque100 kW / 285 Nm
0-100 km/hNot established
Transmission4sp manual
Drive4WD
Kerb weight1,700 kg
Built worldwide1,000,000
Delivered to AustraliaNot established
Effective AU survivors6,500
Australian sales / year450
Typical days on market60 days
Launch priceNot established

What moves the price on this model

Colour hierarchy
Original factory colour, unresprayed+6%
A period Toyota colour rather than a modern shade+3%
Resprayed over filler in the rear quarters-8%
Options
Matching-numbers 2F rather than a V8 or diesel transplant+30%
Sound tub, sills and chassis rails with the underbody documented+25%
Australian-delivered rather than a Japanese or American import+15%
Odometer sensitivity±1.3% per 10,000 km vs 169,000 km
Applied on top of these

Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.

Projected value in five years

Projected value at five years
$50,621
-12.0% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $57,500.
Even odds it lands between $45,076 and $55,638.
$40,079 lowhigh $60,159
The shaded range is even money and 23% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A weaker five year outlook than 84% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: -$6,879 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $29,500.
Duty and expected selling costs: $3,800.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $40,180, or $8,036 a year.
The projected value fall is added to the running cost. Depreciation is the larger number here.

The case for and against

The case for

Sold new here in large numbers as a factory right-hand-drive vehicle, with parts and knowledge support deeper than anything else in this tranche, so there is no drive-side question and no conversion discount to carry. Restored cars held through the 2023 to 2025 give-back while rough projects took the fall.

The case against

The entire published Australian record is four pre-boom Shannons results between $13,500 and $19,500, and the value here is three times the highest of them. Structural rust rectification is $55,000 against a $57,500 vehicle, and two of those four lots were catalogued as modified.

Known faults and risks

Risk 1Full structural rust rectification is $55,000 on a $57,500 vehicle
Risk 2Engine swaps are common and discount a car heavily against matching numbers
Risk 3Japanese and American imports are sold here as Australian-delivered
Structural rust: rear quarters and arches, tub floor and seams, sills, footwells, firewall and cowl, tailgate$55,000
Chassis repair or replacement, especially the rear spring hangers and front dumb-irons$25,000
Disc brake conversion; fine on a driver, value-negative on a concours car$6,000
Worn steering box and kingpins$5,000

Similar cars, and what they cost to run

Evidence behind this valueThin · 3 recorded sales
Carried value
$57,500
Historical price
2016 · $60,4002026 · $57,500
Thin
Multiple recorded transactions plus an aggregate source. Treat the level as reliable.
Four results, and only one of them is this vehicle

Shannons sold a 1976 FJ40 short-wheelbase wagon at $17,500 in May 2018, a 1974 FJ40 catalogued 'Modified' at $13,500 in July 2018, a 1980 BJ40 diesel at $19,500 in November 2018, and an FJ40 'Modified' with a Holden 253 V8 transplant at $13,500 in December 2019 with no year on the results sheet. Two of the four are modified, one is a diesel carrying a different model designation, and the 1976 car is the only unmodified petrol FJ40 in the set.

Read the rest of the evidence notes (4 more)
The file's own inference does not survive its own catalogue lines

The research reads the V8-transplanted car making the same money as an unmodified 1974 example as the clearest evidence that engine swaps destroy value. The 1974 car in this same record is catalogued 'Modified' as well. Two modified vehicles making identical money demonstrates nothing about swaps, so the case against them here rests on the research's general finding and not on that pair. It is a fair conclusion resting on a bad demonstration, and this page separates the two.

Every print is pre-boom and the value is three times the highest of them

The Shannons results in this segment run 2018 to March 2022 and then stop, because Shannons left the auction business in November 2023. For this model they stop earlier still, in December 2019, immediately before a run the research puts at two and a half to four times into a 2022 peak. The local record is real, published and useless as a level: it describes the market before the thing that moved it. The $57,500 here is research placed on that direction and on a 15 to 25 per cent give-back since, not a figure fitted to sales.

There is no drive-side question here, and that is worth money

This was sold new in Australia in large numbers as factory right-hand drive, so none of the conversion cost or conversion discount that sets the price of the Corvette and the Mustang applies. What replaces it is origin: Japanese and American cars are sold here as Australian-delivered, and the difference is real.

The delivery field reads zero and it does not mean what it looks like

No Australian delivery figure was found, so the field was left empty rather than guessed. It is not a statement that the vehicle was never sold new here. It plainly was, in numbers, and the parts support is the proof.

This page prices the model.
The report prices the car in the advertisement.

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This model, today$57,500
Half of sales are further out than$6,428
The report$249
26×
the price of the report: what half of real sales of this model sit further from this page's number than, on this car
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