Valuation · Lotus · S2 · 2004-10
Lotus Elise 111R
1.8L NA four (2ZZ-GE) · 141 kW / 181 Nm · 6sp manual · RWD
AVOIDRated within the $30k to $100k band · 75 of 94 at this money
Model value
$42,000
Must gain each year to break even
+12.8%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
50/100
Scored against the $30k to $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Thin
One to three recorded Australian sales
$42,000
$21,392 lowhigh $41,174
Modelled estimate
No recorded Australian sale stands behind this figure. Treat the level as indicative and the structure as the analysis.
Looking at an Elise for sale?
Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.
Should make, typical example
$42,000
At about 60,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.
Odometer only. Colour, options, history, condition and the photographs move it further, and that is what the report reads.
A person reads the advertisement and its photographs. Usually back within 48 hours. Read a real listing report
Price history
Today $42,000 · modelled median at five years $31,580
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $26,221 to $36,626
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($21,392 to $41,174). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.
The verdict
The numbers argue against it. Scores 50/100, ranking 75 of 94 in the $30k to $100k band. Risk resilience is the strongest input, liquidity the weakest.
Running it costs about $5,880 a year (14.0% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $8,680 a year.
The model's five year median is $31,580, a -24.8% move, with the tenth percentile at $21,392.
Value calibrated to a thin record. Treat the level as provisional.
Evidence
Thin3 recorded sales
Off its peak
-32%
Value band
moderate
No external evidence. A modelled estimate whose structure is more useful than its level.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$8,680 a year all in, -24.8% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$42,000
Recorded sales
Every recorded observation, and when
3 rows on record$68k$50k$33k
202420252026
the value this record published, year by yearnow $42kwhat the model expects across 34k–82k kmsold
Every row, with its price and note (3) ↓
Library value against the sold record
3 sales · median $37,750Value $42,000
$36,500$44,000
2026Collecting Cars$36,500Sold
SOLD. 18 Feb 2026, Fairfield VIC, 69,087km, S2
2025Collecting Cars$37,750Sold
SOLD. 20 May 2025, Sydney NSW, 33,645km, S2
2023Collecting Cars$44,000Sold
SOLD. 17 Mar 2023, Richmond VIC, 82,344km, Sport 111. The top of the Australian record
3 completed Australian sales of 3 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.
Score breakdown
Against the $30k to $100k band median
94 cars in band · ink tick marks the medianOwnership economics30% of total
46/100-9
Scarcity25% of total
49/100-4
Demand durability20% of total
65/100-1
Liquidity15% of total
28/100-24
Risk resilience10% of total
66/100+30
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 50/100. Medians are computed live from the 94 cars currently in the $30k to $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
46/100Baseline80 pts
− 14.0% of value a year to run-34 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)46 pts
Scarcity25% weight
49/100Baseline25 pts
+ 379 registered in Australia+24 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)49 pts
Demand durability20% weight
65/100Baseline35 pts
+ Lotus ended petrol Elise in 2021+22 pts
+ Toyota engine removes ownership fear+8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)65 pts
Liquidity15% weight
28/100Baseline0 pts
+ 82 days on market+20 pts
+ 70 sales a year+8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)28 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
66/100Baseline90 pts
− Crash damage prevalence in clams-16 pts
− 11% volatility-8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)66 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.
What it costs to own · about 3,158 km a year
Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$5,880a year
Share of value per year
14.0%
Scheduled servicing$1,40024%
Tyres, annualised$78013%
Registration and CTP$75013%
Insurance$1,45025%
Sinking fund (failure table)$1,50026%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$43,680
Running costs × 5 years$29,400
Median exit, net of selling cost$29,680
All-in annualised over 5 years$8,680/yr
Share of value per year20.7%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
12.8%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
-5.5%a year
The projection falls 18.3 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$42,000
Stamp duty$1,680
Running costs x 5 years$29,400
Selling cost at exit, 4.5% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$76,543
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.
Specification
Engine1.8L NA four (2ZZ-GE)
Power / torque141 kW / 181 Nm
0-100 km/h5.4 s
Transmission6sp manual
DriveRWD
Kerb weight860 kg
Built worldwide12,000
Delivered to Australia900
Effective AU survivors379
Australian sales / year70
Typical days on market82 days
Launch price$99,990
What moves the price on this model
Colour hierarchy
Krypton Green+5%
Chrome Orange+4%
Starlight Black0%
Options
Sport pack (Bilstein, LSS)+3%
Touring pack+2%
Hardtop included+4%
Starshield front protection+1%
Odometer sensitivity±1% per 10,000 km vs 60,000 km
Applied on top of these
Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.
Projected value in five years
Projected value at five years
$31,580
-24.8% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $42,000.
Even odds it lands between $26,221 and $36,626.
$21,392 lowhigh $41,174
The shaded range is even money and 40% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A weaker five year outlook than 97% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: -$10,420 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $29,400.
Duty and expected selling costs: $3,580.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $43,400, or $8,680 a year.
The projected value fall is added to the running cost. Depreciation is the larger number here.
The case for and against
The case for
An 860kg analogue roadster with a Toyota engine, out of production forever. Values turned in 2019 and compound steadily.
The case against
Thin market. 70 sales a year means selling takes a quarter and pricing is negotiated, not quoted.
Known faults and risks
Risk 1Clamshell crash repairs
Risk 2Chassis bonding inspection
Risk 3Slow resale market
Front clam respray or replace$6,000
Radiator and pipe corrosion$1,600
Similar cars, and what they cost to run
Evidence behind this valueThin · 3 recorded sales
Carried value
$42,000
Historical price
2016 · $52,0002026 · $42,000
Thin
No external evidence. A modelled estimate whose structure is more useful than its level.
Three Australian results and this record was fifty per cent above all of them
$37,750 at 33,645km in May 2025, $36,500 at 69,087km in February 2026, and a Sport 111 at $44,000 with 82,344km in March 2023. Nothing in the Australian record has beaten $44,000, and that was the hotter variant at the highest distance. The value moves $65,000 to $42,000, above the two ordinary results because the 111R this record describes is the better car, and a long way below where it sat.
Read the rest of the evidence notes (1 more)
Distance barely moves these
35,000 kilometres between the two S2 results is worth three per cent. SOURCING: aggregator-surfaced results, unconfirmed against the auction house, the weakest evidence grade here.
This page prices the model.
The report prices the car in the advertisement.
The report prices the car in the advertisement.
Send the link. A person reads the advertisement and its photographs and sends back what that Lotus Elise 111R is worth, what to offer and when to walk away, with five years of costs at the distance you drive.
The evidence on this model is thin and the report says so on its cover. Read a complete one on a real car first. Seventeen sections, no account, nothing to pay.
This model, today$42,000
Half of sales are further out than$4,695
The report$249
19×
the price of the report: what half of real sales of this model sit further from this page's number than, on this car
Watch this model
Told when the next one is called.
One line of email when this desk publishes a call on a Lotus Elise 111R, or records a new Australian sale of one. Nothing else, no schedule, and on a quiet model you may hear nothing for months, which is itself worth knowing about a car you are chasing.
Free. One address, one model, and no account.