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Price opinion from advertisements and recorded sales. Not an inspection or a certified valuation.
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Reference photograph of a Mitsubishi Lancer Evolution X GSR
Valuation · Mitsubishi · CZ4A · 2008-15

Mitsubishi Lancer Evolution X GSR

2.0L turbo inline four (4B11T) · 217 kW / 366 Nm · 5sp manual/6sp SST · AWD
BUYRated within the under $30k band · 6 of 46 at this money
Model value
$26,000
Must gain each year to break even
+14.0%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
52/100
Scored against the under $30k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Thin
One to three recorded Australian sales
$26,000
$15,727 lowhigh $22,210
Calibrated to a thin record
Three Australian GSR results between $21,650 and $32,750. Final Edition results are a separate market and are excluded

Looking at a Lancer Evolution X for sale?

Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.

Should make, typical example
$26,000
At about 130,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.

Odometer only. Colour, options, history, condition and the photographs move it further, and that is what the report reads.

A person reads the advertisement and its photographs. Usually back within 48 hours. Read a real listing report

Price history

Today $26,000 · modelled median at five years $19,082
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $17,317 to $20,727
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($15,727 to $22,210). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.

The verdict

Strong within its price band. Scores 52/100, ranking 6 of 46 in the under $30k band. Demand durability is the strongest input, ownership economics the weakest.
Running it costs about $4,230 a year (16.3% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $6,012 a year.
The model's five year median is $19,082, a -26.6% move, with the tenth percentile at $15,727.
Value calibrated to a thin record. Treat the level as provisional.
Evidence
Thin3 recorded sales
Off its peak
-33%
Value band
tight
Multiple recorded transactions plus an aggregate source. Treat the level as reliable.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$6,012 a year all in, -26.6% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$26,000

Recorded sales

Every recorded observation, and when
5 rows on record
$58k$37k$17k
202120222023202420252026
the value this record published, year by yearnow $26kwhat the model expects across 42k–211k kmsoldcontext, excluded2 rows sit off this scale. Open the list below to see them.
Every row, with its price and note (5) ↓
Library value against the sold record
3 sales · median $22,000
Value $26,000
$21,650$32,750
2026Collecting Cars$22,000Sold
SOLD. 19 Aug 2026, Schofields NSW, 89,226km, SST automatic
2026Collecting Cars$21,650Sold
SOLD. 19 Jan 2026, Oxley ACT, 210,612km, automatic
2025Collecting Cars$32,750Sold
SOLD. 8 Apr 2025, Hope Island QLD, 41,577km, automatic
2021Collecting Cars$66,000Context, excluded
SOLD. 13 Aug 2021, Perth WA, 19,002km, FINAL EDITION - a separate market, not used to set this value
Feb 2021Shannons$82,222Context, excluded
2015 Evo X FINAL EDITION - a separate market, not used to set this value. The top Evo X variant and roughly triple an ordinary GSR. Kept for context because it is the only Shannons result for the model
3 completed Australian sales of 5 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.

Score breakdown

Against the under $30k band median
46 cars in band · ink tick marks the median
Ownership economics30% of total
40/100+5
Scarcity25% of total
41/100even
Demand durability20% of total
72/100+16
Liquidity15% of total
64/100+5
Risk resilience10% of total
62/100+25
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 52/100. Medians are computed live from the 46 cars currently in the under $30k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
40/100
Baseline80 pts
− 16.3% of value a year to run-40 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)40 pts
Scarcity25% weight
41/100
Baseline30 pts
+ 1,519 registered in Australia, last of the Evo line+11 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)41 pts
Demand durability20% weight
72/100
Baseline54 pts
+ Final Evolution model, strong enthusiast demand since production ended+18 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)72 pts
Liquidity15% weight
64/100
Baseline46 pts
+ Active market, 30 days on market+18 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)64 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
62/100
Baseline52 pts
+ 4B11T more robust than older 4G63, few systemic issues+10 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)62 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.

What it costs to own · about 8,966 km a year

Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$4,230a year
Share of value per year
16.3%
Scheduled servicing$78018%
Tyres, annualised$75018%
Registration and CTP$80019%
Insurance$1,25030%
Sinking fund (failure table)$65015%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$27,040
Running costs × 5 years$21,150
Median exit, net of selling cost$18,132
All-in annualised over 5 years$6,012/yr
Share of value per year23.1%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
14.0%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
-6.0%a year
The projection falls 20.0 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$26,000
Stamp duty$1,040
Running costs x 5 years$21,150
Selling cost at exit, 3.7% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$50,018
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.

Specification

Engine2.0L turbo inline four (4B11T)
Power / torque217 kW / 366 Nm
0-100 km/h4.9 s
Transmission5sp manual/6sp SST
DriveAWD
Kerb weight1,600 kg
Built worldwide90,000
Delivered to Australia4,800
Effective AU survivors1,519
Australian sales / year260
Typical days on market30 days
Launch price$59,990

What moves the price on this model

Colour hierarchy
Rally Red+3%
Phantom Black+1%
White+1%
Options
Five-speed manual over SST+6%
MR or Final Edition specification+10%
Unmodified 4B11T+6%
Odometer sensitivity±2.1% per 10,000 km vs 130,000 km
Applied on top of these

Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.

Projected value in five years

Projected value at five years
$19,082
-26.6% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $26,000.
Even odds it lands between $17,317 and $20,727.
$15,727 lowhigh $22,210
The shaded range is even money and 20% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A weaker five year outlook than 98% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: -$6,918 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $21,150.
Duty and expected selling costs: $1,990.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $30,060, or $6,012 a year.
The projected value fall is added to the running cost. Depreciation is the larger number here.

The case for and against

The case for

The final Evolution model before Mitsubishi ended the lineage, which has driven steadily growing enthusiast demand since production stopped. The 4B11T engine is more robust than the earlier 4G63 and the market moves quickly at 30 days on market.

The case against

At an estimated 3,400 AU survivors it is not yet scarce, so gains have come from demand growth rather than shrinking supply. Values sit well below the earlier Evo VI-IX cars despite arguably being the more capable all-round performer. Internationally only two of fifteen lots have sold, the weakest clearance measured in this library, and the one Australian result is for the dearer Final Edition rather than a standard GSR.

Known faults and risks

Risk 1SST clutch pack wear on hard-driven examples
Risk 2AWD driveline service costs
Risk 3Verifying genuine unmodified ECU tune
SST clutch pack service$1,800
AWD transfer case service$1,100
Turbo inspection$900

Similar cars, and what they cost to run

Evidence behind this valueThin · 3 recorded sales
Carried value
$26,000
Historical price
2016 · $24,0002026 · $26,000
Thin
Multiple recorded transactions plus an aggregate source. Treat the level as reliable.
Three Australian results and this record was sixty per cent too high

$32,750 at 41,577km in April 2025, $22,000 at 89,226km in August 2026 and $21,650 at 210,612km in January 2026 fit at minus 0.737 and return about $24,600 at the 130,000 kilometres this record expects. It carried $43,000. The value moves to $26,000, marginally above the fit because three results is a thin sample.

Read the rest of the evidence notes (4 more)
All three are SST automatics,

So a manual GSR result would move this record more than any other single figure.

The final Edition is a different market

$66,000 at 19,002km in August 2021, roughly triple the ordinary car - and, like the STI S207 and the MX-5 SP elsewhere in this library, it needs its own entry rather than propping this one up. A 104,959-kilometre car failed to sell in July 2026. SOURCING: aggregator-surfaced results, unconfirmed against the auction house, the weakest evidence grade here.

Australian evidence

A 2015 Final Edition made $82,222 at Shannons in February 2021, the only Australian auction result on record. The Final Edition is the top Evo X variant, so it sits above an ordinary GSR rather than pricing one.

International context

The weakest clearance of any car examined here. Fifteen lots appear and only two sold - a GBP37,687 FQ-360 in 2023 and a GBP17,920 FQ330 in 2021, plus a GBP10,125 FQ-300 in 2020. Everything else failed, including two FQ-440 MRs at GBP65,000-75,000 and GBP85,000-100,000, two race cars, and repeated FQ-300s between GBP12,000 and GBP18,000. Sellers of the rare British FQ variants are asking well above what anyone has paid, and the ordinary cars are not finding buyers either.

This page prices the model.
The report prices the car in the advertisement.

Send the link. A person reads the advertisement and its photographs and sends back what that Mitsubishi Lancer Evolution X GSR is worth, what to offer and when to walk away, with five years of costs at the distance you drive.

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The evidence on this model is thin and the report says so on its cover. Read a complete one on a real car first. Seventeen sections, no account, nothing to pay.

This model, today$26,000
Half of sales are further out than$2,907
The report$249
12×
the price of the report: what half of real sales of this model sit further from this page's number than, on this car
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