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Price opinion from advertisements and recorded sales. Not an inspection or a certified valuation.
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Reference photograph of a Mitsubishi Lancer Evolution VI GSR
Valuation · Mitsubishi · CP9A · 1999-2001

Mitsubishi Lancer Evolution VI GSR

2.0L turbo inline four (4G63) · 206 kW / 373 Nm · 5sp manual · AWD
CONSIDERRated within the under $30k band · 26 of 46 at this money
Model value
$28,800
Must gain each year to break even
+13.8%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
44/100
Scored against the under $30k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Measured
Four or more recorded Australian sales
$28,800
$18,109 lowhigh $35,178
Calibrated to recorded sales
Four Australian results between $24,250 and $35,000, the most recent in May 2026

Looking at a Lancer Evolution VI for sale?

Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.

Should make, typical example
$28,800
At about 110,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.

Odometer only. Colour, options, history, condition and the photographs move it further, and that is what the report reads.

A person reads the advertisement and its photographs. Usually back within 48 hours. Read a real listing report

Price history

Today $28,800 · modelled median at five years $25,363
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $21,547 to $30,526
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($18,109 to $35,178). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.

The verdict

A defensible case with reservations. Scores 44/100, ranking 26 of 46 in the under $30k band. Scarcity is the strongest input, liquidity the weakest.
Running it costs about $4,630 a year (16.1% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $5,738 a year.
The model's five year median is $25,363, a -11.9% move, with the tenth percentile at $18,109.
Value calibrated to recorded sales.
Evidence
Measured4 recorded sales
Off its peak
-26%
Value band
wide
Multiple recorded transactions plus an aggregate source. Treat the level as reliable.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$5,738 a year all in, -11.9% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$28,800

Recorded sales

Every recorded observation, and when
4 rows on record
$46k$34k$22k
202120222023202420252026
the value this record published, year by yearnow $29kwhat the model expects across 83k–135k kmsold
Every row, with its price and note (4) ↓
Library value against the sold record
4 sales · median $28,000
Value $28,800
$24,250$35,000
May 2026Collecting Cars$35,000Sold
SOLD. 14 May 2026, Artarmon NSW, 82,978km, standard. The lowest distance in the set and the top of it
Dec 2023Collecting Cars$25,750Sold
SOLD. 7 Dec 2023, Melbourne VIC, 134,573km from new. 1999, silver, around 206kW, JAPANESE AUCTION GRADE FOUR PAPERWORK supplied. Lightly modified: HKS adjustable suspension, HKS mushroom filter and Silent HiPower silencer, front strut brace, aftermarket Enkei wheels, Pioneer head unit. Serviced February 2023 including a timing belt and transfer case work
Jun 2023Collecting Cars$24,250Sold
SOLD. 29 Jun 2023, Queanbeyan ACT, 98,291km, standard. The weakest result in the set
Jan 2021Collecting Cars$30,250Sold
SOLD. 20 Jan 2021, Lane Cove North NSW, 123,446km from new. 1999 Japan-delivered import brought in by the seller in 2018, Scotia White, around 281bhp at the wheels. TME front bumper, carbon bonnet, TME-style Ralliart decals, BC coilovers, custom three-inch exhaust. PRIOR DAMAGE DISCLOSED: left rear arch repaired before import and visible with the door open, hail on the right rear panel, front bumper repaired and resprayed after a pole. Routine six-monthly oil changes documented
4 completed Australian sales of 4 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.

Score breakdown

Against the under $30k band median
46 cars in band · ink tick marks the median
Ownership economics30% of total
22/100-13
Scarcity25% of total
80/100+39
Demand durability20% of total
70/100+14
Liquidity15% of total
2/100-57
Risk resilience10% of total
30/100-7
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 44/100. Medians are computed live from the 46 cars currently in the under $30k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
22/100
Baseline80 pts
− 16.1% of value a year to run-58 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)22 pts
Scarcity25% weight
80/100
Baseline58 pts
+ Only around 550 estimated AU imports+14 pts
+ WRC-derived homologation model+8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)80 pts
Demand durability20% weight
70/100
Baseline52 pts
+ Cult status among rally and JDM turbo enthusiasts+18 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)70 pts
Liquidity15% weight
2/100
Baseline12 pts
− Thin market, 82 days on market-10 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)2 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
30/100
Baseline40 pts
− 4G63 robust but ringland/head gasket risk if tuned-10 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)30 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.

What it costs to own · about 4,231 km a year

Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$4,630a year
Share of value per year
16.1%
Scheduled servicing$88019%
Tyres, annualised$75016%
Registration and CTP$80017%
Insurance$1,45031%
Sinking fund (failure table)$75016%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$29,952
Running costs × 5 years$23,150
Median exit, net of selling cost$24,413
All-in annualised over 5 years$5,738/yr
Share of value per year19.9%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
13.8%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
-2.5%a year
The projection falls 16.3 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$28,800
Stamp duty$1,152
Running costs x 5 years$23,150
Selling cost at exit, 3.3% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$54,913
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.

Specification

Engine2.0L turbo inline four (4G63)
Power / torque206 kW / 373 Nm
0-100 km/h4.9 s
Transmission5sp manual
DriveAWD
Kerb weight1,360 kg
Built worldwide26,000
Delivered to Australia550
Effective AU survivors230
Australian sales / year28
Typical days on market82 days
Launch price$55,000

What moves the price on this model

Colour hierarchy
Scotia White+3%
Red+4%
Black-1%
Options
Unmodified 4G63, standard turbo+8%
Japanese auction sheet supplied and clean+9%
Australian-delivered rather than a Japanese import+7%
Original paint with no repaired panels+6%
Stamped service history from new+5%
Odometer sensitivity±3.6% per 10,000 km vs 110,000 km
Applied on top of these

Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.

Projected value in five years

Projected value at five years
$25,363
-11.9% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $28,800.
Even odds it lands between $21,547 and $30,526.
$18,109 lowhigh $35,178
The shaded range is even money and 42% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A weaker five year outlook than 84% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: -$3,437 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $23,150.
Duty and expected selling costs: $2,102.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $28,690, or $5,738 a year.
The projected value fall is added to the running cost. Depreciation is the larger number here.

The case for and against

The case for

A genuine WRC homologation model with an estimated 550 Australian imports, and values have doubled since 2016 on strong rally-heritage demand. The 4G63 has deep aftermarket support if maintenance is kept up.

The case against

The AWD turbo driveline costs more to run than a two-wheel-drive rival and the 4G63 carries ringland risk on tuned examples. At 54 days on market it is a slow seller reflecting a small, discerning buyer pool. The Australian valuation also carries no measured evidence behind it at present, so treat it as research rather than a market figure.

Known faults and risks

Risk 1Ringland failure on tuned examples
Risk 2AWD driveline parts scarcity
Risk 3Odometer/import history verification
Ringland repair (short block)$4,200
Driveline/transfer case service$1,600
Turbo rebuild$2,200

Similar cars, and what they cost to run

Evidence behind this valueMeasured · 4 recorded sales
Carried value
$28,800
Historical price
2016 · $18,0002026 · $28,800
Measured
Multiple recorded transactions plus an aggregate source. Treat the level as reliable.
Four Australian results for the standard car, and the TME has been taken out of this record

This entry previously carried three Tommi Makinen results inside it as context while pricing the badge as a 60 per cent option. Six TME results now exist, spanning $44,500 to $95,850 against $24,250 to $35,000 here, and that is a separate market with its own entry rather than an option on this one.

Read the rest of the evidence notes (4 more)
The four standard results

$35,000 at 82,978 kilometres in Artarmon, New South Wales, May 2026; $30,250 at 123,446 in Lane Cove North, January 2021; $25,750 at 134,573 in Melbourne, December 2023; and $24,250 at 98,291 in Queanbeyan, June 2023.

They price the odometer, at 3.6 per cent per 10,000 kilometres

With a correlation of minus 0.50 - weak, four points, but the right sign and close to the 3.6 this record already carried, which is now a measurement rather than an assumption.

The expected distance was wrong and is the larger correction

This record assumed 145,000 kilometres. Every car in the sample sits between 82,978 and 134,573, so the figure was extrapolating past the entire observed population - the same error found on the Escort RS2000. It moves to 110,000, the middle of what actually trades, and the value follows the fit there.

Prior damage is common and disclosed

The January 2021 car had a repaired rear arch from before import, hail damage and a repaired front bumper, and still made the second-highest price in the set. The December 2023 car came with Japanese auction grade four paperwork. On a thirty-year-old rally saloon imported from Japan the question is not whether it has been repaired but whether the sheet says so. SOURCING: two of the four are read from the Collecting Cars lot pages themselves; the other two are aggregator-surfaced and unconfirmed.

This page prices the model.
The report prices the car in the advertisement.

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This model, today$28,800
Half of sales are further out than$3,220
The report$249
13×
the price of the report: what half of real sales of this model sit further from this page's number than, on this car
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