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Valuation · FPV · BF · 2006-08
FPV Falcon F6 Typhoon
4.0L turbo inline six (Barra) · 270 kW / 550 Nm · 6sp manual/auto · RWD
CONSIDERRated within the $30k to $100k band · 6 of 94 at this money
Research estimate
$58,000
Must gain each year to break even
+7.4%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
61/100
Scored against the $30k to $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Researched
No Australian transaction of any kind
$58,000
$52,973 lowhigh $102,690
Modelled estimate
No recorded Australian sale stands behind this figure. Treat the level as indicative and the structure as the analysis.
Measured across this library, a value with no Australian result behind it runs high about seven times in ten, by a median of ten per cent. Read this one as a ceiling rather than a midpoint.
Looking at a Falcon for sale?
Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.
Should make, typical example
$58,000
At about 175,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.
No Australian sale stands behind this value, so treat the figure as indicative.
We will not sell a report on this car. The check above stays free.
Price history
Today $58,000 · modelled median at five years $76,837
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $64,285 to $90,436
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($52,973 to $102,690). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.
The verdict
A defensible case with reservations. Scores 61/100, ranking 6 of 94 in the $30k to $100k band. Demand durability is the strongest input, risk resilience the weakest.
Running it costs about $4,110 a year (7.1% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $1,077 a year.
The model's five year median is $76,837, a +32.5% move, with the tenth percentile at $52,973.
Value is research, not a measurement. Treat the level as indicative and the structure as the analysis.
Evidence
Researched0 recorded sales
Off its peak
at peak
Value band
wide
No external evidence. A modelled estimate whose structure is more useful than its level.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$1,077 a year all in, +32.5% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$58,000
Recorded sales
No individual sales are logged for this vehicle.
Cars of this kind trade mainly through dealers and classifieds rather than auction houses, so no verified sale record exists to publish. The value is a modelled estimate.
Score breakdown
Against the $30k to $100k band median
94 cars in band · ink tick marks the medianOwnership economics30% of total
62/100+7
Scarcity25% of total
56/100+3
Demand durability20% of total
72/100+6
Liquidity15% of total
60/100+8
Risk resilience10% of total
46/100+10
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 61/100. Medians are computed live from the 94 cars currently in the $30k to $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
62/100Baseline80 pts
− 7.1% of value a year to run-18 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)62 pts
Scarcity25% weight
56/100Baseline46 pts
+ 4,500 built, a genuinely limited FPV special+10 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)56 pts
Demand durability20% weight
72/100Baseline54 pts
+ Turbo six cult status has grown since local manufacturing ended+18 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)72 pts
Liquidity15% weight
60/100Baseline44 pts
+ Strong enthusiast demand, 32 days on market+16 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)60 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
46/100Baseline52 pts
− Barra six robust, but manual gearbox wear on hard-driven cars-6 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)46 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.
What it costs to own · about 9,211 km a year
Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$4,110a year
Share of value per year
7.1%
Scheduled servicing$78019%
Tyres, annualised$78019%
Registration and CTP$85021%
Insurance$1,15028%
Sinking fund (failure table)$55013%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$60,320
Running costs × 5 years$20,550
Median exit, net of selling cost$75,487
All-in annualised over 5 years$1,077/yr
Share of value per year1.9%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
7.4%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
+5.8%a year
The projection falls 1.6 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$58,000
Stamp duty$2,320
Running costs x 5 years$20,550
Selling cost at exit, 2.3% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$82,797
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.
Specification
Engine4.0L turbo inline six (Barra)
Power / torque270 kW / 550 Nm
0-100 km/h5.9 s
Transmission6sp manual/auto
DriveRWD
Kerb weight1,740 kg
Built worldwide4,500
Delivered to Australia4,500
Effective AU survivors2,200
Australian sales / year180
Typical days on market32 days
Launch price$59,990
What moves the price on this model
Colour hierarchy
Vixen+3%
Nitro Blue+5%
White-2%
Options
Unmodified 270kW turbo six+8%
Manual over ZF+5%
Odometer sensitivity±1.4% per 10,000 km vs 175,000 km
Applied on top of these
Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.
Projected value in five years
Projected value at five years
$76,837
+32.5% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $58,000.
Even odds it lands between $64,285 and $90,436.
$52,973 lowhigh $102,690
The shaded range is even money and 41% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A stronger five year outlook than 96% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: +$18,837 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $20,550.
Duty and expected selling costs: $3,670.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $5,385, or $1,077 a year.
The projected value rise offsets part of the running cost. It does not make the car free to own.
The case for and against
The case for
A genuinely limited FPV special with 4,500 built, and the turbo Barra six has grown a cult following since local Ford manufacturing ended in 2016. Values have more than doubled since 2016 and continue climbing as clean manual examples become scarce.
The case against
Manual gearboxes show wear on cars that have been driven hard, and buyers need documented service history to avoid an expensive rebuild. It competes for attention with V8 alternatives from the same era that carry stronger brand recognition.
Known faults and risks
Risk 1Manual gearbox wear on hard-driven cars
Risk 2Verifying genuine low-km, single-owner history
Risk 3Turbo/intercooler system age-related wear
Manual gearbox rebuild$2,200
Turbo/intercooler service$1,400
Clutch replacement$1,300
Similar cars, and what they cost to run
What we will not sell you
We will not price a FPV Falcon against an advertisement.
No Australian transaction stands behind this value. A spec-adjusted figure built on it would look precise and would not be, so the report is refused instead of sold with a caveat. That goes for this car and 87 others. Everything above is free and stays free.
Watch this model
Told when the next one is called.
One line of email when this desk publishes a call on a FPV Falcon F6 Typhoon, or records a new Australian sale of one. Nothing else, no schedule, and on a quiet model you may hear nothing for months, which is itself worth knowing about a car you are chasing.
Free. One address, one model, and no account.