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Valuation · Holden · VZ · 2004-06
Holden Commodore SS
5.7L V8 (Gen III LS1) · 235 kW / 465 Nm · 6sp manual · RWD
CONSIDERRated within the under $30k band · 16 of 46 at this money
Research estimate
$19,500
Must gain each year to break even
+16.3%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
47/100
Scored against the under $30k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Researched
No Australian transaction of any kind
$19,500
$15,711 lowhigh $30,002
Modelled estimate
No recorded Australian sale stands behind this figure. Treat the level as indicative and the structure as the analysis.
Measured across this library, a value with no Australian result behind it runs high about seven times in ten, by a median of ten per cent. Read this one as a ceiling rather than a midpoint.
Looking at a Commodore for sale?
Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.
Should make, typical example
$19,500
At about 195,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.
No Australian sale stands behind this value, so treat the figure as indicative.
We will not sell a report on this car. The check above stays free.
Price history
Today $19,500 · modelled median at five years $23,428
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $19,369 to $26,886
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($15,711 to $30,002). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.
The verdict
A defensible case with reservations. Scores 47/100, ranking 16 of 46 in the under $30k band. Demand durability is the strongest input, scarcity the weakest.
Running it costs about $3,960 a year (20.3% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $3,470 a year.
The model's five year median is $23,428, a +20.1% move, with the tenth percentile at $15,711.
Value is research, not a measurement. Treat the level as indicative and the structure as the analysis.
Evidence
Researched0 recorded sales
Off its peak
at peak
Value band
wide
No external evidence. A modelled estimate whose structure is more useful than its level.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$3,470 a year all in, +20.1% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$19,500
Recorded sales
No individual sales are logged for this vehicle.
Cars of this kind trade mainly through dealers and classifieds rather than auction houses, so no verified sale record exists to publish. The value is a modelled estimate.
Score breakdown
Against the under $30k band median
46 cars in band · ink tick marks the medianOwnership economics30% of total
29/100-6
Scarcity25% of total
26/100-15
Demand durability20% of total
78/100+22
Liquidity15% of total
77/100+18
Risk resilience10% of total
42/100+5
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 47/100. Medians are computed live from the 46 cars currently in the under $30k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
29/100Baseline80 pts
− 20.3% of value a year to run-51 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)29 pts
Scarcity25% weight
26/100Baseline22 pts
+ 21,000 registered in Australia, manuals a smaller subset+4 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)26 pts
Demand durability20% weight
78/100Baseline52 pts
+ Last-generation locally-built V8 sedan, strong nostalgia demand+18 pts
+ Manual LS1 combination especially sought after+8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)78 pts
Liquidity15% weight
77/100Baseline55 pts
+ Fast-moving Australian muscle market, 26 days on market+22 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)77 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
42/100Baseline50 pts
− LS1 robust, but high-km taxi/fleet history common-8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)42 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.
What it costs to own · about 9,286 km a year
Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$3,960a year
Share of value per year
20.3%
Scheduled servicing$78020%
Tyres, annualised$78020%
Registration and CTP$85021%
Insurance$1,05027%
Sinking fund (failure table)$50013%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$20,280
Running costs × 5 years$19,800
Median exit, net of selling cost$22,728
All-in annualised over 5 years$3,470/yr
Share of value per year17.8%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
16.3%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
+3.7%a year
The projection falls 12.6 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$19,500
Stamp duty$780
Running costs x 5 years$19,800
Selling cost at exit, 3.6% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$41,572
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.
Specification
Engine5.7L V8 (Gen III LS1)
Power / torque235 kW / 465 Nm
0-100 km/h6 s
Transmission6sp manual
DriveRWD
Kerb weight1,690 kg
Built worldwide55,000
Delivered to Australia55,000
Effective AU survivors21,000
Australian sales / year1,400
Typical days on market26 days
Launch price$48,990
What moves the price on this model
Colour hierarchy
Phantom Black+2%
Storm Blue+3%
Sting Red+4%
Options
Manual over auto+6%
SS-Z edition+4%
Odometer sensitivity±1% per 10,000 km vs 195,000 km
Applied on top of these
Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.
Projected value in five years
Projected value at five years
$23,428
+20.1% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $19,500.
Even odds it lands between $19,369 and $26,886.
$15,711 lowhigh $30,002
The shaded range is even money and 39% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A stronger five year outlook than 85% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: +$3,928 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $19,800.
Duty and expected selling costs: $1,480.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $17,350, or $3,470 a year.
The projected value rise offsets part of the running cost. It does not make the car free to own.
The case for and against
The case for
A locally-built LS1 V8 with genuine local manufacturing history, and the manual variant is increasingly sought after within the wider Commodore market. It sells quickly at 26 days on market with strong nostalgia-driven demand.
The case against
At an estimated 21,000 AU survivors it remains a relatively common car, and a meaningful share carry high-km fleet or taxi history. Buyers need to verify genuine manual, low-km provenance to avoid overpaying for an ordinary example.
Known faults and risks
Risk 1Fleet/taxi/high-km history common
Risk 2Rear main seal weep on higher-km cars
Risk 3Diff and tailshaft wear from hard use
Rear main seal replacement$950
Diff rebuild$1,600
Clutch replacement$1,100
Similar cars, and what they cost to run
What we will not sell you
We will not price a Holden Commodore against an advertisement.
No Australian transaction stands behind this value. A spec-adjusted figure built on it would look precise and would not be, so the report is refused instead of sold with a caveat. That goes for this car and 87 others. Everything above is free and stays free.
Watch this model
Told when the next one is called.
One line of email when this desk publishes a call on a Holden Commodore SS, or records a new Australian sale of one. Nothing else, no schedule, and on a quiet model you may hear nothing for months, which is itself worth knowing about a car you are chasing.
Free. One address, one model, and no account.