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Price opinion from advertisements and recorded sales. Not an inspection or a certified valuation.
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Reference photograph of a Mazda MX-5 NB
Valuation · Mazda · NB (second gen facelift) · 1998-2005

Mazda MX-5 NB

1.8L NA inline four (BP-ZE) · 103 kW / 165 Nm · 5sp manual · RWD
CONSIDERRated within the under $30k band · 35 of 46 at this money
Research estimate
$12,500
Must gain each year to break even
+19.0%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
40/100
Scored against the under $30k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Researched
No Australian transaction of any kind
$12,500
$9,922 lowhigh $16,924
Modelled estimate
No recorded Australian sale stands behind this figure. Treat the level as indicative and the structure as the analysis.
Measured across this library, a value with no Australian result behind it runs high about seven times in ten, by a median of ten per cent. Read this one as a ceiling rather than a midpoint.

Looking at an MX-5 for sale?

Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.

Should make, typical example
$12,500
At about 175,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.

No Australian sale stands behind this value, so treat the figure as indicative.

We will not sell a report on this car. The check above stays free.

Price history

Today $12,500 · modelled median at five years $14,193
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $11,946 to $15,630
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($9,922 to $16,924). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.

The verdict

A defensible case with reservations. Scores 40/100, ranking 35 of 46 in the under $30k band. Liquidity is the strongest input, ownership economics the weakest.
Running it costs about $3,130 a year (25.0% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $2,987 a year.
The model's five year median is $14,193, a +13.5% move, with the tenth percentile at $9,922.
Value is research, not a measurement. Treat the level as indicative and the structure as the analysis.
Evidence
Researched0 recorded sales
Off its peak
at peak
Value band
wide
No external evidence. A modelled estimate whose structure is more useful than its level.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$2,987 a year all in, +13.5% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity requires a decade of attrition
Negotiate from$12,500

Recorded sales

Every recorded observation, and when
2 rows on record
$27k$18k$8k
2023202420252026
the value this record published, year by yearnow $13kcontext, excluded
Every row, with its price and note (2) ↓
Apr 2024Collecting Cars$17,500Context, excluded
SOLD. 23 Apr 2024, Forestville NSW, 62,829km from new. 2005 AUSTRALIAN-DELIVERED SE - the factory turbo car also sold as the Mazdaspeed and Roadster Turbo, with a front-mount intercooler, Bilstein dampers, wider tyres, Racing Hart 17-inch wheels and the Australia-only 3.63 differential. Sunlight Silver, fourth owner, six-speed. Upgraded well beyond factory since: Adaptronic standalone ECU, Bosch 960cc injectors, three-inch exhaust and downpipe, PWR intercooler, Yellowspeed coilovers corner-weighted, Brown Davis roll bar with CAMS paperwork, oil cooler - now 165kW against a factory 157. Dyno printouts and an extensive invoice folder. A factory-turbo variant, not the ordinary NB this record describes
2022Collecting Cars$25,000Context, excluded
SOLD. 14 Nov 2022, Brisbane QLD, 283,394km. This is an SP, the ~100-car Australian factory turbo, NOT the car this record describes. Held as context for the gap, not used to set the value
0 completed Australian sales of 2 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.

Score breakdown

Against the under $30k band median
46 cars in band · ink tick marks the median
Ownership economics30% of total
18/100-17
Scarcity25% of total
24/100-17
Demand durability20% of total
52/100-4
Liquidity15% of total
74/100+15
Risk resilience10% of total
72/100+35
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 40/100. Medians are computed live from the 46 cars currently in the under $30k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
18/100
Baseline80 pts
− 25.0% of value a year to run-62 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)18 pts
Scarcity25% weight
24/100
Baseline20 pts
+ 4,600 estimated AU survivors, limited editions genuinely rare+4 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)24 pts
Demand durability20% weight
52/100
Baseline38 pts
+ Widely regarded as the best-handling affordable roadster+14 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)52 pts
Liquidity15% weight
74/100
Baseline52 pts
+ Very active market, 26 days on market+22 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)74 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
72/100
Baseline62 pts
+ Simple, well understood mechanicals, low failure rate+10 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)72 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.

What it costs to own · about 7,143 km a year

Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$3,130a year
Share of value per year
25.0%
Scheduled servicing$58019%
Tyres, annualised$52017%
Registration and CTP$78025%
Insurance$85027%
Sinking fund (failure table)$40013%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$13,000
Running costs × 5 years$15,650
Median exit, net of selling cost$13,713
All-in annualised over 5 years$2,987/yr
Share of value per year23.9%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
19.0%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
+2.6%a year
The projection falls 16.4 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$12,500
Stamp duty$500
Running costs x 5 years$15,650
Selling cost at exit, 3.8% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$29,794
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.

Specification

Engine1.8L NA inline four (BP-ZE)
Power / torque103 kW / 165 Nm
0-100 km/h8.5 s
Transmission5sp manual
DriveRWD
Kerb weight1,030 kg
Built worldwide290,000
Delivered to Australia11,000
Effective AU survivors4,600
Australian sales / year480
Typical days on market26 days
Launch price$39,990

What moves the price on this model

Colour hierarchy
Classic Red+4%
Silver0%
Black-1%
Options
SP turbo documentation (one of 100)+15%
Original SP intercooler system intact+6%
Odometer sensitivity±1% per 10,000 km vs 175,000 km
Applied on top of these

Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.

Projected value in five years

Projected value at five years
$14,193
+13.5% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $12,500.
Even odds it lands between $11,946 and $15,630.
$9,922 lowhigh $16,924
The shaded range is even money and 31% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A stronger five year outlook than 66% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: +$1,693 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $15,650.
Duty and expected selling costs: $980.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $14,935, or $2,987 a year.
The projected value rise offsets part of the running cost. It does not make the car free to own.

The case for and against

The case for

Widely regarded as the best-handling affordable roadster and it sells the fastest of any car in this comparison at 26 days on market. Running costs are low and the mechanicals are simple and well understood.

The case against

At 4,600 estimated survivors it is not scarce outside limited editions, so gains have been steady rather than sharp. Rust in the sills and rear subframe area needs checking on any example bought at this price point.

Known faults and risks

Risk 1Sill and rear subframe rust
Risk 2Soft-top wear on unreplaced roofs
Risk 3Rear diff whine on high-km cars
Sill rust repair$1,400
Soft-top replacement$900
Rear diff service$350

Similar cars, and what they cost to run

Evidence behind this valueResearched · 0 recorded sales
Carried value
$12,500
Historical price
2016 · $8,6002026 · $12,500
Researched
No external evidence. A modelled estimate whose structure is more useful than its level.
Two Australian lots sit on this record, neither is an ordinary NB, and neither is counted

$25,000 at Brisbane in November 2022 is an SP - the roughly 100-car Australian factory turbo, and that one is the first of three pre-production cars. $17,500 at Forestville, New South Wales in April 2024 is an SE, the factory turbo sold here as the Mazdaspeed, upgraded since to 165kW with a standalone ECU and a CAMS-papered roll bar.

Read the rest of the evidence notes (3 more)
Both are factory-Turbo variants and both are held as context

This record describes the naturally aspirated NB, and it has no transaction of its own.

The SE was filed under the NC until now,

Under a note calling 2005 the NB/NC boundary year. Its own lot page settles it - the SE was introduced in 2004 on the NB platform - and it was supplying a third of the NC record's evidence while describing a different car.

What the two do say

About the ordinary car is bounded and worth stating: a 283,394-kilometre SP with a rebuilt engine made $25,000 and a 62,829-kilometre SE made $17,500, so the turbo variants are trading between $17,500 and $25,000 largely regardless of distance, and a standard NB sits below both. The value of $12,500 is a research estimate against that ceiling rather than a measurement, and the first ordinary NB result will replace it. SOURCING: both read from the Collecting Cars lot pages themselves.

What we will not sell you
We will not price a Mazda MX-5 against an advertisement.

No Australian transaction stands behind this value. A spec-adjusted figure built on it would look precise and would not be, so the report is refused instead of sold with a caveat. That goes for this car and 87 others. Everything above is free and stays free.

Read a real listing report
Watch this model
Told when the next one is called.

One line of email when this desk publishes a call on a Mazda MX-5 NB, or records a new Australian sale of one. Nothing else, no schedule, and on a quiet model you may hear nothing for months, which is itself worth knowing about a car you are chasing.

Free. One address, one model, and no account.