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Price opinion from advertisements and recorded sales. Not an inspection or a certified valuation.
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Reference photograph of a Mazda MX-5 NC
Valuation · Mazda · NC · 2005-15

Mazda MX-5 NC

2.0L NA inline four (MZR) · 118 kW / 188 Nm · 6sp manual · RWD
CONSIDERRated within the under $30k band · 30 of 46 at this money
Model value
$15,000
Must gain each year to break even
+17.1%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
41/100
Scored against the under $30k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Thin
One to three recorded Australian sales
$15,000
$11,052 lowhigh $18,935
Modelled estimate
No recorded Australian sale stands behind this figure. Treat the level as indicative and the structure as the analysis.

Looking at an MX-5 for sale?

Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.

Should make, typical example
$15,000
At about 165,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.

Odometer only. Colour, options, history, condition and the photographs move it further, and that is what the report reads.

A person reads the advertisement and its photographs. Usually back within 48 hours. Read a real listing report

Price history

Today $15,000 · modelled median at five years $15,979
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $13,387 to $17,534
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($11,052 to $18,935). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.

The verdict

A defensible case with reservations. Scores 41/100, ranking 30 of 46 in the under $30k band. Liquidity is the strongest input, scarcity the weakest.
Running it costs about $3,230 a year (21.5% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $3,264 a year.
The model's five year median is $15,979, a +6.5% move, with the tenth percentile at $11,052.
Value calibrated to a thin record. Treat the level as provisional.
Evidence
Thin2 recorded sales
Off its peak
at peak
Value band
wide
No external evidence. A modelled estimate whose structure is more useful than its level.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$3,264 a year all in, +6.5% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity requires a decade of attrition
Negotiate from$15,000

Recorded sales

Every recorded observation, and when
2 rows on record
$27k$19k$11k
20222023202420252026
the value this record published, year by yearnow $15kwhat the model expects across 42k–114k kmsold
Every row, with its price and note (2) ↓
Library value against the sold record
2 sales · median $20,500
Value $15,000
$15,500$25,500
The library value sits below the lowest recorded sale; the evidence note above explains why.
Nov 2024Collecting Cars$15,500Sold
SOLD. 27 Nov 2024, Toowoomba QLD, 113,503km from new. 2008 NC1 with the POWER-OPERATED RETRACTABLE HARD TOP, 127kW 2.0 six-speed, black over tan leather. Sony head unit with CarPlay and a reversing camera retrofitted. Mazda dealer service book with eight dated entries from 1,833km in August 2008 to 112,890km in September 2023. Touched-in stone chips on the nose, hard top working correctly
Jul 2021Collecting Cars$25,500Sold
SOLD. 18 Jul 2021, Canterbury VIC, 42,421km. 2010 NC2 Roadster, Metallic Silver Pewter, sold out of the house’s Track Edition Collection. Never tracked and never dynoed, and modified deliberately short of forced induction: Mazdaspeed intake, ceramic-coated headers, Tein FLEX Z coilovers with in-dash EDFC control, SuperPro sway bars, ECU reflash to an estimated 120kW at the wheels against 95kW standard. BBS forged wheels, Recaro seats, limited-slip differential, hard top. All books, service documentation and invoices
2 completed Australian sales of 2 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.

Score breakdown

Against the under $30k band median
46 cars in band · ink tick marks the median
Ownership economics30% of total
26/100-9
Scarcity25% of total
13/100-28
Demand durability20% of total
52/100-4
Liquidity15% of total
79/100+20
Risk resilience10% of total
75/100+38
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 41/100. Medians are computed live from the 46 cars currently in the under $30k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
26/100
Baseline80 pts
− 21.5% of value a year to run-54 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)26 pts
Scarcity25% weight
13/100
Baseline15 pts
− 6,800 estimated AU survivors, most common MX-5 generation-2 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)13 pts
Demand durability20% weight
52/100
Baseline40 pts
+ Larger, more usable than earlier generations, broad appeal+12 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)52 pts
Liquidity15% weight
79/100
Baseline55 pts
+ Fastest-moving car in this batch, 25 days on market+24 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)79 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
75/100
Baseline65 pts
+ Well proven engine and chassis, few systemic issues+10 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)75 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.

What it costs to own · about 10,313 km a year

Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$3,230a year
Share of value per year
21.5%
Scheduled servicing$60019%
Tyres, annualised$55017%
Registration and CTP$78024%
Insurance$88027%
Sinking fund (failure table)$42013%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$15,600
Running costs × 5 years$16,150
Median exit, net of selling cost$15,429
All-in annualised over 5 years$3,264/yr
Share of value per year21.8%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
17.1%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
+1.3%a year
The projection falls 15.8 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$15,000
Stamp duty$600
Running costs x 5 years$16,150
Selling cost at exit, 3.7% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$32,958
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.

Specification

Engine2.0L NA inline four (MZR)
Power / torque118 kW / 188 Nm
0-100 km/h7.9 s
Transmission6sp manual
DriveRWD
Kerb weight1,150 kg
Built worldwide240,000
Delivered to Australia14,500
Effective AU survivors6,800
Australian sales / year620
Typical days on market25 days
Launch price$42,990

What moves the price on this model

Colour hierarchy
True Red+3%
Black0%
Silver-1%
Options
Numbered SE edition verified+6%
Roadster Coupe folding hardtop+3%
Odometer sensitivity±1% per 10,000 km vs 165,000 km
Applied on top of these

Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.

Projected value in five years

Projected value at five years
$15,979
+6.5% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $15,000.
Even odds it lands between $13,387 and $17,534.
$11,052 lowhigh $18,935
The shaded range is even money and 31% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A stronger five year outlook than 51% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: +$979 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $16,150.
Duty and expected selling costs: $1,150.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $16,320, or $3,264 a year.
The projected value rise offsets part of the running cost. It does not make the car free to own.

The case for and against

The case for

The fastest-selling car in this comparison at 25 days on market, reflecting its broad appeal and low running costs. The larger 2.0L engine and more usable cabin make it a easier daily proposition than the earlier NB.

The case against

At an estimated 6,800 AU survivors it is the most common MX-5 generation, which limits scarcity-driven upside. Retractable hardtop versions add mechanical complexity that the simpler soft-top does not carry.

Known faults and risks

Risk 1Retractable hardtop mechanism wear (RC models)
Risk 2Rear subframe corrosion in coastal areas
Risk 3Clutch wear on high-km examples
Hardtop mechanism service$650
Subframe corrosion treatment$900
Clutch replacement$900

Similar cars, and what they cost to run

Evidence behind this valueThin · 2 recorded sales
Carried value
$15,000
Historical price
2016 · $11,8002026 · $15,000
Thin
No external evidence. A modelled estimate whose structure is more useful than its level.
Two Australian results and they describe different cars

$25,500 at Canterbury, Victoria in July 2021 for a 42,421-kilometre NC2 Roadster with coilovers, BBS wheels, Recaros and a reflash; $15,500 at Toowoomba, Queensland in November 2024 for a 113,503-kilometre NC1 with the retractable hard top and a full Mazda dealer book.

Read the rest of the evidence notes (3 more)
A two-point line through those implies seventeen per cent per 10,000 kilometres,

Which is arithmetic rather than measurement - three and a half years apart, one modified and one standard, one soft top and one folding hard top. kmPct stays at 1.0 as an assumption and this record does NOT claim to have measured it.

The SE has been moved out of this record

A 2005 MX-5 SE was filed here under a note calling it the NB/NC boundary year; its own lot page states the SE was introduced in 2004 on the NB platform. It was supplying a third of this record's evidence while describing a different generation, and it now sits with the NB.

What the pair does support

Is that a standard NC in ordinary distance trades in the mid teens and that the folding hard top does not command the premium its complexity suggests. The value is held at $15,000 against the November 2024 result adjusted for distance. SOURCING: both read from the Collecting Cars lot pages themselves.

This page prices the model.
The report prices the car in the advertisement.

Send the link. A person reads the advertisement and its photographs and sends back what that Mazda MX-5 NC is worth, what to offer and when to walk away, with five years of costs at the distance you drive.

Read a real listing report

The evidence on this model is thin and the report says so on its cover. Read a complete one on a real car first. Seventeen sections, no account, nothing to pay.

This model, today$15,000
Half of sales are further out than$1,677
The report$249
7×
the price of the report: what half of real sales of this model sit further from this page's number than, on this car
Watch this model
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