BMW M5

They fit at minus 0.616 with 2.4 per cent per 10,000 kilometres, and at the 160,000 this record expects the curve returns about $62,000 against a carried $95,000. Nothing in the Australian record has beaten $80,000. The value moves to $63,000 and the distance penalty from 0.9 to 2.4.

A 57,028-kilometre car failed at Moorabbin in April 2026. It is the lowest-distance E39 M5 in the entire set and it is the only one that did not find a buyer, which says the premium for a low-distance example is thinner here than a seller would assume. SOURCING: aggregator-surfaced results, unconfirmed against the auction house, the weakest evidence grade here.

A 2000 M5 made $20,000 at Shannons Melbourne in April 2018 - the only traditional auction-house result here, the cheapest in the record, and now eight years old. Roughly 369 came here. That figure is too old and too isolated to set a current value, it sits outside the eight-result platform fits above, and the international record has risen since.

Sixty-six lots and 78 per cent clearing, so the model sells readily. No direction is claimed: at 2.43 times upper quartile to lower this is one of the most widely spread records in the library, and the reason is not variants but condition. The clearest way to see it is by auction house. In America, Gooding, Broad Arrow and Bonhams sold six cars at a median of US$96,320, ranging to US$176,000. Mecum, RM and Barrett-Jackson sold seven at a median of US$26,400, starting at US$13,200. Same model, same country, same years, and a 3.6-fold gap - because the premium houses take the exceptional cars and the volume houses take the rest. British results run GBP5,500 to GBP47,250 with a median near GBP15,000, which is the ordinary end of the same story. This is worth understanding before reading any single auction figure for this car: the number tells you as much about where it was sold as about what it was. An AC Schnitzer conversion, a Dinan S1 and a Touring have been set aside.

Across the eight Australian results the correlation between a lot's date and its odometer is 0.078 - effectively zero. The high-distance cars are not the old lots and the low-distance cars are not the new ones, so the two effects are separable rather than tangled. Fitting price on distance and date together returns minus $1,432 per 10,000 kilometres and minus $3,165 a year, and explains 73 per cent of the variance. Distance alone explained 38.

Which loaded five years of market decline into a constant, and the $63,000 it produced was a figure for no particular date.

Extrapolated to August 2026 the two-variable fit returns $52,768 at the expected 160,000 kilometres, but that is a straight line pushed past its last observation and this library does not do that. The two most recent results are used instead: $57,500 at 162,561 kilometres in December 2025 and $65,000 at 100,891 kilometres in April 2026, which de-adjust to $57,875 and $56,537 at 160,000. The value is set at $57,000, between them, and the distance penalty at 2.5 per cent, which is what the two-variable fit implies at that level.

Two 1999 cars in the same rare factory green, both described as original and unmodified, sold six months apart: $70,000 at 176,000 kilometres in October 2021 at Sutherland Shire, and $68,500 at 111,645 kilometres in April 2022 at Cowra. The fit says the Cowra car should have been about $7,600 dearer after both its 64,355-kilometre advantage and six months of market decline. It was $1,500 cheaper. A nine-thousand-dollar residual on the closest matched pair in the set is the plainest statement available that on this model condition, documentation and deferred maintenance outrank everything the model measures. Fit the curve, then read the service book.