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Price opinion from advertisements and recorded sales. Not an inspection or a certified valuation.
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Reference photograph of a Honda Civic Type R
Valuation · Honda · FL5 · 2023-26

Honda Civic Type R

2.0L turbo inline four · 235 kW / 420 Nm · 6sp manual · FWD
CONSIDERRated within the $30k to $100k band · 22 of 94 at this money
Research estimate
$80,000
Must gain each year to break even
+8.9%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
58/100
Scored against the $30k to $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Researched
No Australian transaction of any kind
$80,000
$61,219 lowhigh $114,833
Researched, no recorded transaction
No Australian sale and not one live retail listing could be found. The value is derived from current new-car pricing rather than from any local transaction.
Measured across this library, a value with no Australian result behind it runs high about seven times in ten, by a median of ten per cent. Read this one as a ceiling rather than a midpoint.

Looking at a Civic for sale?

Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.

Should make, typical example
$80,000
At about 15,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.

No Australian sale stands behind this value, so treat the figure as indicative.

We will not sell a report on this car. The check above stays free.

Price history

Today $80,000 · modelled median at five years $87,892
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $73,862 to $102,063
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($61,219 to $114,833). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.

The verdict

A defensible case with reservations. Scores 58/100, ranking 22 of 94 in the $30k to $100k band. Liquidity is the strongest input, risk resilience the weakest.
Running it costs about $7,230 a year (9.0% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $6,708 a year.
The model's five year median is $87,892, a +9.9% move, with the tenth percentile at $61,219.
Value is research, not a measurement. Treat the level as indicative and the structure as the analysis.
Evidence
Researched0 recorded sales
Off its peak
at peak
Value band
wide
An external source, but no itemised transactions. Indicative only.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$6,708 a year all in, +9.9% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$80,000

Recorded sales

No individual sales are logged for this vehicle.
The value is supported by the aggregate evidence noted at the top of this report, but the underlying transactions are not itemised here.

Score breakdown

Against the $30k to $100k band median
94 cars in band · ink tick marks the median
Ownership economics30% of total
62/100+7
Scarcity25% of total
47/100-6
Demand durability20% of total
74/100+8
Liquidity15% of total
79/100+27
Risk resilience10% of total
12/100-24
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 58/100. Medians are computed live from the 94 cars currently in the $30k to $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
62/100
Baseline84 pts
− 9.0% of value a year to run-22 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)62 pts
Scarcity25% weight
47/100
Baseline20 pts
+ 1,450 survivors estimated in Australia+27 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)47 pts
Demand durability20% weight
74/100
Baseline58 pts
+ The first allocation sold out in under twenty-four hours+14 pts
+ It has not depreciated at all in three years+10 pts
− A front-drive hatch at $80,000 is a narrow audience-8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)74 pts
Liquidity15% weight
79/100
Baseline12 pts
+ 30 days on market+48 pts
+ 120 sales a year+19 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)79 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
12/100
Baseline52 pts
− Not one live retail listing could be found to check this against-14 pts
− Grey imports carry a different power figure and no local warranty-8 pts
− No Australian transaction behind the value-18 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)12 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.

What it costs to own · about 10,000 km a year

Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$7,230a year
Share of value per year
9.0%
Scheduled servicing$1,63023%
Tyres, annualised$1,11015%
Registration and CTP$87012%
Insurance$2,06028%
Sinking fund (failure table)$1,56022%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$83,200
Running costs × 5 years$36,150
Median exit, net of selling cost$85,812
All-in annualised over 5 years$6,708/yr
Share of value per year8.4%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
8.9%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
+1.9%a year
The projection falls 7.0 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$80,000
Stamp duty$3,200
Running costs x 5 years$36,150
Selling cost at exit, 2.6% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$122,536
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.

Specification

Engine2.0L turbo inline four
Power / torque235 kW / 420 Nm
0-100 km/h5.4 s
Transmission6sp manual
DriveFWD
Kerb weight1,429 kg
Built worldwideNot established
Delivered to Australia1,450
Effective AU survivors1,450
Australian sales / year120
Typical days on market30 days
Launch price$72,600

What moves the price on this model

Colour hierarchy
Original paint with an undamaged front splitter+5%
Championship White, the colour the badge is associated with+4%
Resprayed front bar after splitter damage-6%
Options
Australian-delivered rather than a grey import+15%
Standard, never tracked, with the original Brembo rotors+8%
Full Honda Australia service record from new+6%
Odometer sensitivity±1.8% per 10,000 km vs 15,000 km
Applied on top of these

Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.

Projected value in five years

Projected value at five years
$87,892
+9.9% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $80,000.
Even odds it lands between $73,862 and $102,063.
$61,219 lowhigh $114,833
The shaded range is even money and 38% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A stronger five year outlook than 58% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: +$7,892 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $36,150.
Duty and expected selling costs: $5,280.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $33,540, or $6,708 a year.
The projected value rise offsets part of the running cost. It does not make the car free to own.

The case for and against

The case for

Honda's list has gone from $72,600 to $85,000 in three years while supply arrived in batches of 18 and 98 cars, so a 2023 car sits at or slightly above what its owner paid. The first allocation sold out in under 24 hours and owners are not selling yet.

The case against

No Australian sale and not one live retail listing could be found, so this value rests on new-car pricing rather than on anything a buyer has actually paid. Honda keeps delivering more of them in managed batches, so the used pool grows every quarter while the audience for a front-drive hatch at $80,000 does not.

Known faults and risks

Risk 1No local sale and no live listing sits behind the value
Risk 2Grey imports carry a different power figure and no local warranty
Risk 3Supply batches keep arriving and the used pool keeps growing
Brembo front rotors and pads after track use$3,250
Michelin Pilot Sport 4S 265/30 R19 set fitted$2,400
Front splitter and low front lip damage$1,300
Infotainment glitches and A/C condenser stone damage$1,250

Similar cars, and what they cost to run

Evidence behind this valueResearched · 0 recorded sales
Carried value
$80,000
Historical price
2022 · $72,6002026 · $80,000
Researched
An external source, but no itemised transactions. Indicative only.
This record is anchored on a new-car price, not on a transaction

No Australian sale of an FL5 was found, and not one live retail listing could be found either, so the value is derived from what the car costs new and from nothing else. That is the weakest anchor in this tranche and the page says so rather than dressing it up. Read the absence carefully too: a used market this small and this young can be invisible to a search without being empty, so the missing listings may be a limitation of the search rather than a fact about the market.

Read the rest of the evidence notes (3 more)
What is known is the list price, and it has only gone up

Honda launched the FL5 here in February 2023 at a fixed, non-negotiable $72,600 drive-away and it is now $85,000, up $12,400 in three years. A car that has aged three years while its replacement cost rose that far has not depreciated in any ordinary sense, which is why 2023 cars are understood to sit at or slightly above what their owners paid.

Supply is rationed, which is why there is nothing to measure

Honda releases the FL5 in managed batches - 18 cars in February 2026, 98 in July 2026 for December delivery - and the first allocation sold out in under a day. Owners are not selling.

One verification step matters

The Australian car is 235kW, 8kW below the Japanese figure because of local fuel quality, and a grey import carries the other number and no Honda Australia warranty.

What we will not sell you
We will not price a Honda Civic against an advertisement.

No Australian transaction stands behind this value. A spec-adjusted figure built on it would look precise and would not be, so the report is refused instead of sold with a caveat. That goes for this car and 87 others. Everything above is free and stays free.

Read a real listing report
Watch this model
Told when the next one is called.

One line of email when this desk publishes a call on a Honda Civic Type R, or records a new Australian sale of one. Nothing else, no schedule, and on a quiet model you may hear nothing for months, which is itself worth knowing about a car you are chasing.

Free. One address, one model, and no account.