Valuation · Toyota · A90 · 2021-23
Toyota Supra GR Supra 3.0
3.0L turbo inline six (B58) · 285 kW / 500 Nm · 6sp manual · RWD
CONSIDERRated within the $30k to $100k band · 34 of 94 at this money
Research estimate
$75,000
Must gain each year to break even
+6.9%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
56/100
Scored against the $30k to $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Researched
No Australian transaction of any kind
$75,000
$45,689 lowhigh $98,893
Modelled estimate
No recorded Australian sale stands behind this figure. Treat the level as indicative and the structure as the analysis.
Measured across this library, a value with no Australian result behind it runs high about seven times in ten, by a median of ten per cent. Read this one as a ceiling rather than a midpoint.
Looking at a Supra for sale?
Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.
Should make, typical example
$75,000
At about 45,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.
No Australian sale stands behind this value, so treat the figure as indicative.
We will not sell a report on this car. The check above stays free.
Price history
Today $75,000 · modelled median at five years $74,020
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $59,118 to $87,103
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($45,689 to $98,893). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.
The verdict
A defensible case with reservations. Scores 56/100, ranking 34 of 94 in the $30k to $100k band. Risk resilience is the strongest input, scarcity the weakest.
Running it costs about $4,880 a year (6.5% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $5,996 a year.
The model's five year median is $74,020, a -1.3% move, with the tenth percentile at $45,689.
Value is research, not a measurement. Treat the level as indicative and the structure as the analysis.
Evidence
Researched0 recorded sales
Off its peak
-20%
Value band
wide
No external evidence. A modelled estimate whose structure is more useful than its level.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$5,996 a year all in, -1.3% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$75,000
Recorded sales
No individual sales are logged for this vehicle.
Cars of this kind trade mainly through dealers and classifieds rather than auction houses, so no verified sale record exists to publish. The value is a modelled estimate.
Score breakdown
Against the $30k to $100k band median
94 cars in band · ink tick marks the medianOwnership economics30% of total
64/100+9
Scarcity25% of total
39/100-14
Demand durability20% of total
68/100+2
Liquidity15% of total
42/100-10
Risk resilience10% of total
74/100+38
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 56/100. Medians are computed live from the 94 cars currently in the $30k to $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
64/100Baseline80 pts
− 6.5% of value a year to run-16 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)64 pts
Scarcity25% weight
39/100Baseline30 pts
+ 389 registered in Australia, manual cars a minority+9 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)39 pts
Demand durability20% weight
68/100Baseline48 pts
+ BMW-sourced B58 engine has a strong tuning reputation+12 pts
+ Manual gearbox return drove renewed enthusiast interest+8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)68 pts
Liquidity15% weight
42/100Baseline32 pts
+ Still depreciating new-car curve, 34 days on market+10 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)42 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
74/100Baseline62 pts
+ B58 platform well proven across BMW and Toyota applications+12 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)74 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.
What it costs to own · about 11,250 km a year
Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$4,880a year
Share of value per year
6.5%
Scheduled servicing$95019%
Tyres, annualised$78016%
Registration and CTP$80016%
Insurance$1,65034%
Sinking fund (failure table)$70014%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$78,000
Running costs × 5 years$24,400
Median exit, net of selling cost$72,420
All-in annualised over 5 years$5,996/yr
Share of value per year8.0%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
6.9%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
-0.3%a year
The projection falls 7.1 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$75,000
Stamp duty$3,000
Running costs x 5 years$24,400
Selling cost at exit, 2.1% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$104,632
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.
Specification
Engine3.0L turbo inline six (B58)
Power / torque285 kW / 500 Nm
0-100 km/h4.3 s
Transmission6sp manual
DriveRWD
Kerb weight1,570 kg
Built worldwide45,000
Delivered to Australia900
Effective AU survivors389
Australian sales / year85
Typical days on market34 days
Launch price$94,000
What moves the price on this model
Colour hierarchy
Matte grey editions+4%
Renaissance Red 2.0+2%
White0%
Options
GTS grade (JBL, head-up display)+3%
Manual (2023 on)+8%
Matte paint editions+4%
Odometer sensitivity±2% per 10,000 km vs 45,000 km
Applied on top of these
Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.
Projected value in five years
Projected value at five years
$74,020
-1.3% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $75,000.
Even odds it lands between $59,118 and $87,103.
$45,689 lowhigh $98,893
The shaded range is even money and 47% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A weaker five year outlook than 67% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: -$980 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $24,400.
Duty and expected selling costs: $4,600.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $29,980, or $5,996 a year.
The projected value fall is added to the running cost. Depreciation is the larger number here.
The case for and against
The case for
The B58 engine has a strong tuning reputation borrowed from BMW applications and the manual gearbox option, added from 2021, revived enthusiast interest in the model. Most examples remain under factory warranty, which lowers ownership risk relative to older imports.
The case against
It is still on a new-car depreciation curve rather than an appreciation curve, and manual variants are a minority of the 820 registered in Australia. At this age it competes directly with cheaper used sports coupes on outright value.
Known faults and risks
Risk 1Still depreciating, not yet a collector car
Risk 2Timing chain service intervals to monitor
Risk 3Resale tied closely to remaining warranty
Timing chain guide inspectiondocumentation
Clutch replacement (manual)$1,800
Brake rotor/pad set$1,400
Similar cars, and what they cost to run
What we will not sell you
We will not price a Toyota Supra against an advertisement.
No Australian transaction stands behind this value. A spec-adjusted figure built on it would look precise and would not be, so the report is refused instead of sold with a caveat. That goes for this car and 87 others. Everything above is free and stays free.
Watch this model
Told when the next one is called.
One line of email when this desk publishes a call on a Toyota Supra GR Supra 3.0, or records a new Australian sale of one. Nothing else, no schedule, and on a quiet model you may hear nothing for months, which is itself worth knowing about a car you are chasing.
Free. One address, one model, and no account.