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Reference photograph of a Toyota GR Yaris Rallye
Valuation · Toyota · GXPA16 · 2020-23

Toyota GR Yaris Rallye

1.6L turbo I3 · 200 kW / 370 Nm · 6sp manual · AWD
BUYRated within the $30k to $100k band · 3 of 94 at this money
Model value
$39,000
Must gain each year to break even
+14.2%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
62/100
Scored against the $30k to $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Measured
Four or more recorded Australian sales
$39,000
$27,816 lowhigh $36,095
Calibrated to recorded sales
Six Australian results between $38,125 and $53,500. The two most recent, both 2026, sit at about $38,300

Looking at a GR Yaris for sale?

Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.

Should make, typical example
$39,000
At about 30,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.

Odometer only. Colour, options, history, condition and the photographs move it further, and that is what the report reads.

A person reads the advertisement and its photographs. Usually back within 48 hours. Read a real listing report

Price history

Today $39,000 · modelled median at five years $31,521
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $29,572 to $33,927
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($27,816 to $36,095). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.

The verdict

Strong within its price band. Scores 62/100, ranking 3 of 94 in the $30k to $100k band. Liquidity is the strongest input, ownership economics the weakest.
Running it costs about $6,600 a year (16.9% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $8,648 a year.
The model's five year median is $31,521, a -19.2% move, with the tenth percentile at $27,816.
Value calibrated to recorded sales.
Evidence
Measured6 recorded sales
Off its peak
-37%
Value band
tight
Multiple recorded transactions plus an aggregate source. Treat the level as reliable.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$8,648 a year all in, -19.2% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$39,000

Recorded sales

Every recorded observation, and when
6 rows on record
$98k$64k$31k
2023202420252026
the value this record published, year by yearnow $39kwhat the model expects across 1k–19k kmsold
Every row, with its price and note (6) ↓
Library value against the sold record
6 sales · median $43,750
Value $39,000
$38,125$53,500
2026Collecting Cars$38,501Sold
SOLD. 30 Jan 2026, Hobart TAS, 19,000km, Rallye Edition
2026Collecting Cars$38,125Sold
SOLD. 16 Jan 2026, Padstow NSW, 8,447km
Aug 2024Donington Auctions$40,000Sold
2021 Rallye. The only Australian auction result for the model and the only Australian sold price on record
Apr 2024Collecting Cars$47,500Sold
SOLD. 17 Apr 2024, Sydney NSW, 1,315km from new - effectively delivery mileage. Rallye Edition with GR high-performance suspension, forged 18-inch wheels and Torsen differentials front and rear, white over black leather and suede. Owner book pack only. The lowest distance on record for the model here
Nov 2022Collecting Cars$53,500Sold
SOLD. 17 Nov 2022, Melbourne VIC, 9,878km. Rallye Edition, ONE OWNER FROM NEW AND NEVER TRACKED, Platinum White Pearl, unmodified, PPF on the bonnet, bumper and sills, and the only marks are in the film itself. Running-in service June 2021, then December 2021 and July 2022 at Nunawading Toyota. The top of the market
2022Collecting Cars$48,000Sold
SOLD. 6 Sep 2022, Welshpool WA, 9,984km
6 completed Australian sales of 6 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.

Score breakdown

Against the $30k to $100k band median
94 cars in band · ink tick marks the median
Ownership economics30% of total
37/100-18
Scarcity25% of total
60/100+7
Demand durability20% of total
81/100+15
Liquidity15% of total
87/100+35
Risk resilience10% of total
70/100+34
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 62/100. Medians are computed live from the 94 cars currently in the $30k to $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
37/100
Baseline62 pts
− 16.9% of value a year to run-25 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)37 pts
Scarcity25% weight
60/100
Baseline40 pts
+ Around 940 cars in the country+12 pts
+ Homologation build, three-cylinder engine unique to the model+8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)60 pts
Demand durability20% weight
81/100
Baseline55 pts
+ WRC homologation special with a manual only+18 pts
+ Second-generation car moved to an automatic option, isolating the first+8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)81 pts
Liquidity15% weight
87/100
Baseline55 pts
+ 34 days on market+22 pts
+ 55 sales a year+10 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)87 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
70/100
Baseline88 pts
− Modified and tuned cars are common and hard to detect-12 pts
− Depends on enthusiast demand rather than exotica money-6 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)70 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.

What it costs to own · about 6,667 km a year

Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$6,600a year
Share of value per year
16.9%
Scheduled servicing$90014%
Tyres, annualised$1,60024%
Registration and CTP$80012%
Insurance$2,40036%
Sinking fund (failure table)$90014%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$40,560
Running costs × 5 years$33,000
Median exit, net of selling cost$30,321
All-in annualised over 5 years$8,648/yr
Share of value per year22.2%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
14.2%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
-4.2%a year
The projection falls 18.4 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$39,000
Stamp duty$1,560
Running costs x 5 years$33,000
Selling cost at exit, 3.1% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$75,895
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.

Specification

Engine1.6L turbo I3
Power / torque200 kW / 370 Nm
0-100 km/h5.2 s
Transmission6sp manual
DriveAWD
Kerb weight1,280 kg
Built worldwide25,000
Delivered to Australia1,000
Effective AU survivors940
Australian sales / year55
Typical days on market34 days
Launch price$54,500

What moves the price on this model

Colour hierarchy
Feverish Red+3%
Glacier White+1%
Ebony0%
Options
Rallye pack (Torsen diffs, forged wheels)+6%
Unmodified with service history+5%
Circuit pack+4%
Original tune, no ECU flash+4%
Odometer sensitivity±4% per 10,000 km vs 30,000 km
Applied on top of these

Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.

Projected value in five years

Projected value at five years
$31,521
-19.2% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $39,000.
Even odds it lands between $29,572 and $33,927.
$27,816 lowhigh $36,095
The shaded range is even money and 15% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A weaker five year outlook than 91% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: -$7,479 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $33,000.
Duty and expected selling costs: $2,760.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $43,240, or $8,648 a year.
The projected value fall is added to the running cost. Depreciation is the larger number here.

The case for and against

The case for

A genuine homologation car with a manual gearbox and a bespoke engine, in a market that has repeatedly rewarded exactly that recipe. Australia took only about a thousand.

The case against

It is a modern Toyota with a factory warranty behind it and no scarcity in the way a Ferrari has scarcity. The tuning culture around it means honest unmodified cars need verifying, not assuming. The single Australian auction result, $40,000 in August 2024, came in far below where this car was previously valued, and half the international lots offered since 2024 failed to sell. The scarcity story has not yet translated into auction strength.

Known faults and risks

Risk 1Modified or ECU-flashed cars misrepresented as standard
Risk 2Track use without documentation
Risk 3Second-generation supply capping first-generation upside
Clutch replacement after track use$3,800
Front differential service neglect$2,600

Similar cars, and what they cost to run

Evidence behind this valueMeasured · 6 recorded sales
Carried value
$39,000
Historical price
2020 · $54,5002026 · $39,000
Measured
Multiple recorded transactions plus an aggregate source. Treat the level as reliable.
Six Australian results and the market has fallen a long way since 2022

The 2022-24 results run $53,500 at 9,878km, $48,000 at 9,984km and $47,500 at 1,315km. The 2026 results on comparable cars are $38,501 at 19,000km and $38,125 at 8,447km. That is roughly a quarter off in under four years, on cars at similar distance, and this record carried $55,000 - above anything achieved even at the top of the market. The value moves to $39,000.

Read the rest of the evidence notes (6 more)
The one high 2026 result is not a comparable

$59,500 in July 2026 is a 2025 car with 5,173 kilometres and the GR-DAT automatic, five model years newer than the cars this record describes. It says nothing about a 2020-21 Rallye.

No distance slope is fitted

The raw regression returns 15 per cent per 10,000 kilometres, which is not a distance effect - it is the 2022-to-2026 decline showing up as one, because the newer sales happen to be the higher-distance cars. The assumed 4.0 stands and this record does not claim to have measured it.

A data-quality warning on this model

Several of the aggregator listings carry the same VIN, JTDAF4E3X0A008436, across different cars, years and distances. At least one is wrong. Treat any single GR Yaris row here as weaker than the set.

One no-sale

A 2020 car at 55,649km failed in Southbank, July 2026. SOURCING: aggregator-surfaced auction results, not confirmed against the auction house, the weakest evidence grade in this library.

Australian result

A 2021 GR Yaris Rallye made $40,000 at Donington Auctions in August 2024 - the only Australian sold price on record for the model. Auction results for ordinary modern cars typically run below retail, so the value here sits above that figure rather than at it, but the gap to what the library previously carried was too large to leave alone. Toyota Australia took roughly 1,000 cars in the first allocation and they sold out before delivery.

International context

Ten lots worldwide, seven sold, but only four offered since 2024 and half of those failed. British results, unconverted, run GBP34,410 in 2021, GBP31,500 and GBP37,687 for Circuit Pack cars in 2023, GBP27,800 in 2025 and GBP30,375 in 2026 - easing from the 2023 high. No two adjacent years hold enough sales in one currency to measure a trend, so no direction is claimed. Circuit and Circuit Pack cars trade above standard ones and are not comparables for a base car.

This page prices the model.
The report prices the car in the advertisement.

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This model, today$39,000
Half of sales are further out than$4,360
The report$249
18×
the price of the report: what half of real sales of this model sit further from this page's number than, on this car
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