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Price opinion from advertisements and recorded sales. Not an inspection or a certified valuation.
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Reference photograph of a Toyota GR86 GTS
Valuation · Toyota · ZN8 · 2022-26

Toyota GR86 GTS

2.4L NA flat four · 174 kW / 250 Nm · 6sp manual · RWD
CONSIDERRated within the $30k to $100k band · 39 of 94 at this money
Research estimate
$42,000
Must gain each year to break even
+11.5%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
56/100
Scored against the $30k to $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Researched
No Australian transaction of any kind
$42,000
$29,125 lowhigh $55,805
Researched, no recorded transaction
No Australian sale this library can point to, at auction or in public. The anchor is the asking market, where a 2023 GTS manual still asks within about four per cent of its original list.
Measured across this library, a value with no Australian result behind it runs high about seven times in ten, by a median of ten per cent. Read this one as a ceiling rather than a midpoint.

Looking at a GR86 for sale?

Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.

Should make, typical example
$42,000
At about 28,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.

No Australian sale stands behind this value, so treat the figure as indicative.

We will not sell a report on this car. The check above stays free.

Price history

Today $42,000 · modelled median at five years $43,265
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $35,827 to $49,861
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($29,125 to $55,805). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.

The verdict

A defensible case with reservations. Scores 56/100, ranking 39 of 94 in the $30k to $100k band. Liquidity is the strongest input, risk resilience the weakest.
Running it costs about $5,370 a year (12.8% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $5,671 a year.
The model's five year median is $43,265, a +3.0% move, with the tenth percentile at $29,125.
Value is research, not a measurement. Treat the level as indicative and the structure as the analysis.
Evidence
Researched0 recorded sales
Off its peak
-3%
Value band
wide
An external source, but no itemised transactions. Indicative only.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$5,671 a year all in, +3.0% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$42,000

Recorded sales

No individual sales are logged for this vehicle.
The value is supported by the aggregate evidence noted at the top of this report, but the underlying transactions are not itemised here.

Score breakdown

Against the $30k to $100k band median
94 cars in band · ink tick marks the median
Ownership economics30% of total
58/100+3
Scarcity25% of total
44/100-9
Demand durability20% of total
64/100-2
Liquidity15% of total
80/100+28
Risk resilience10% of total
24/100-12
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 56/100. Medians are computed live from the 94 cars currently in the $30k to $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
58/100
Baseline84 pts
− 12.8% of value a year to run-32 pts
+ Below its Australian list price+6 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)58 pts
Scarcity25% weight
44/100
Baseline20 pts
+ 3,000 survivors estimated in Australia+24 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)44 pts
Demand durability20% weight
64/100
Baseline54 pts
+ Manual cars are the scarce half of a small delivery pool+12 pts
+ The list price has barely moved, so used cars are not undercut+8 pts
− Nearly two thousand seven hundred delivered and none of them old yet-10 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)64 pts
Liquidity15% weight
80/100
Baseline12 pts
+ 40 days on market+44 pts
+ 425 sales a year+24 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)80 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
24/100
Baseline60 pts
− A tracked FA24 with a starved bearing is a $15,000 engine-10 pts
− Track use is common on this model and hard to see-8 pts
− No Australian transaction behind the value-18 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)24 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.

What it costs to own · about 12,000 km a year

Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$5,370a year
Share of value per year
12.8%
Scheduled servicing$1,21023%
Tyres, annualised$82015%
Registration and CTP$65012%
Insurance$1,53028%
Sinking fund (failure table)$1,16022%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$43,680
Running costs × 5 years$26,850
Median exit, net of selling cost$42,175
All-in annualised over 5 years$5,671/yr
Share of value per year13.5%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
11.5%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
+0.6%a year
The projection falls 10.9 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$42,000
Stamp duty$1,680
Running costs x 5 years$26,850
Selling cost at exit, 2.6% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$72,409
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.

Specification

Engine2.4L NA flat four
Power / torque174 kW / 250 Nm
0-100 km/h6.3 s
Transmission6sp manual
DriveRWD
Kerb weight1,291 kg
Built worldwideNot established
Delivered to Australia2,699
Effective AU survivors3,000
Australian sales / year425
Typical days on market40 days
Launch price$45,390

What moves the price on this model

Colour hierarchy
Original paint with an undamaged front lip+4%
A factory metallic rather than plain white+3%
Resprayed after front or underbody damage-7%
Options
Six-speed manual rather than the automatic+10%
Preventive oil cooler and accumulator fitted, with receipts+6%
Standard throughout and never tracked+8%
Odometer sensitivity±1.6% per 10,000 km vs 28,000 km
Applied on top of these

Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.

Projected value in five years

Projected value at five years
$43,265
+3.0% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $42,000.
Even odds it lands between $35,827 and $49,861.
$29,125 lowhigh $55,805
The shaded range is even money and 39% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A weaker five year outlook than 56% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: +$1,265 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $26,850.
Duty and expected selling costs: $2,770.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $28,355, or $5,671 a year.
The projected value rise offsets part of the running cost. It does not make the car free to own.

The case for and against

The case for

Manual cars are the scarce half of a 2,699-car delivery pool and a 2023 GTS manual still asks within about four per cent of its original list. Toyota has lifted the recommended price by only about $700 in three years, so the new car is not undercutting the used ones.

The case against

It is a three-year-old mass-market coupe with no scarcity case, and its support is a list price Toyota can move whenever it likes. A tracked FA24 with a spun bearing is a $15,000 replacement out of warranty, and nothing on the outside of the car tells you which one you are looking at.

Known faults and risks

Risk 1Automatics run $3,000 to $5,000 behind an equivalent manual
Risk 2Track history is common and an out-of-warranty FA24 is $15,000
Risk 3The support under used prices is a list price, not demand
FA24 rod-bearing / oil-starvation failure on tracked cars, out-of-warranty engine replacement$15,000
Clutch and dual-mass flywheel on hard-driven cars$3,750
Preventive oil cooler / accumulator fitment$3,000
Front rotors and pads after track use$1,600
Low front lip and underbody scrape damage$1,050

Similar cars, and what they cost to run

Evidence behind this valueResearched · 0 recorded sales
Carried value
$42,000
Historical price
2022 · $43,3002026 · $42,000
Researched
An external source, but no itemised transactions. Indicative only.
Nothing has sold in public here

There is no Australian auction result for the ZN8 and no publishable private sale, so the value rests on two things only: what cars are asking, and what the new one costs. A 2023 GTS manual still asks within about four per cent of its original list three years on, and that single observation is the whole of the flat trajectory on this page.

Read the rest of the evidence notes (3 more)
The list price is doing the work

Toyota has raised the recommended price by about $700 in three years, so there is no new-car price umbrella dragging used values down and a buyer choosing between new and three years old is choosing between two numbers that sit close together. That is a fragile support rather than a demand story, and it would disappear the moment Toyota repriced the model.

The manual is the scarce half of a small pool

VFACTS gives 2,699 delivered to the end of 2025, from a first-year allocation of about 1,100. Dealer used stock is heavily automatic and an automatic runs $3,000 to $5,000 behind an equivalent manual, so the gearbox is the first thing to establish and the largest single adjustment on the page after condition.

The engine is the risk nobody prices

An FA24 that has been tracked and starved of oil is a $15,000 replacement once the warranty is gone, and a $3,000 oil cooler and accumulator fitted before that happens is worth more than any modification on the car.

What we will not sell you
We will not price a Toyota GR86 against an advertisement.

No Australian transaction stands behind this value. A spec-adjusted figure built on it would look precise and would not be, so the report is refused instead of sold with a caveat. That goes for this car and 87 others. Everything above is free and stays free.

Read a real listing report
Watch this model
Told when the next one is called.

One line of email when this desk publishes a call on a Toyota GR86 GTS, or records a new Australian sale of one. Nothing else, no schedule, and on a quiet model you may hear nothing for months, which is itself worth knowing about a car you are chasing.

Free. One address, one model, and no account.