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Price opinion from advertisements and recorded sales. Not an inspection or a certified valuation.
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Reference photograph of a Mazda MX-5 2.0 Roadster GT
Valuation · Mazda · ND · 2015-26

Mazda MX-5 2.0 Roadster GT

2.0L NA inline four · 135 kW / 205 Nm · 6sp manual · RWD
CONSIDERRated within the $30k to $100k band · 64 of 94 at this money
Research estimate
$32,000
Must gain each year to break even
+12.8%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
52/100
Scored against the $30k to $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Researched
No Australian transaction of any kind
$32,000
$21,394 lowhigh $41,665
Researched, no recorded transaction
No Australian transaction record of any kind, and no auction series for the model exists here. The value is anchored on the live asking market, which splits by series, and on a list price that has been raised repeatedly.
Measured across this library, a value with no Australian result behind it runs high about seven times in ten, by a median of ten per cent. Read this one as a ceiling rather than a midpoint.

Looking at an MX-5 for sale?

Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.

Should make, typical example
$32,000
At about 77,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.

No Australian sale stands behind this value, so treat the figure as indicative.

We will not sell a report on this car. The check above stays free.

Price history

Today $32,000 · modelled median at five years $32,695
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $26,751 to $37,413
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($21,394 to $41,665). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.

The verdict

A defensible case with reservations. Scores 52/100, ranking 64 of 94 in the $30k to $100k band. Liquidity is the strongest input, risk resilience the weakest.
Running it costs about $4,750 a year (14.8% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $5,033 a year.
The model's five year median is $32,695, a +2.2% move, with the tenth percentile at $21,394.
Value is research, not a measurement. Treat the level as indicative and the structure as the analysis.
Evidence
Researched0 recorded sales
Off its peak
-3%
Value band
wide
An external source, but no itemised transactions. Indicative only.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$5,033 a year all in, +2.2% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$32,000

Recorded sales

No individual sales are logged for this vehicle.
The value is supported by the aggregate evidence noted at the top of this report, but the underlying transactions are not itemised here.

Score breakdown

Against the $30k to $100k band median
94 cars in band · ink tick marks the median
Ownership economics30% of total
53/100-2
Scarcity25% of total
39/100-14
Demand durability20% of total
58/100-8
Liquidity15% of total
81/100+29
Risk resilience10% of total
25/100-11
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 52/100. Medians are computed live from the 94 cars currently in the $30k to $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
53/100
Baseline84 pts
− 14.8% of value a year to run-37 pts
+ Below its Australian list price+6 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)53 pts
Scarcity25% weight
39/100
Baseline20 pts
+ 8,500 survivors estimated in Australia+19 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)39 pts
Demand durability20% weight
58/100
Baseline52 pts
+ The most-bought lightweight roadster this market has+10 pts
− Eight and a half thousand survivors is not scarcity-12 pts
+ A manual 2.0 GT is the version buyers actually want+8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)58 pts
Liquidity15% weight
81/100
Baseline12 pts
+ 45 days on market+42 pts
+ 1,050 sales a year+27 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)81 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
25/100
Baseline62 pts
− Rod bearing failure on a tracked ND1 is an $11,000 engine-8 pts
− The soft-top is a wearing part on 2015-2018 cars-5 pts
− Still in production, so the new car sets the ceiling-6 pts
− No Australian transaction behind the value-18 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)25 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.

What it costs to own · about 12,000 km a year

Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$4,750a year
Share of value per year
14.8%
Scheduled servicing$1,07023%
Tyres, annualised$73015%
Registration and CTP$57012%
Insurance$1,35028%
Sinking fund (failure table)$1,03022%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$33,280
Running costs × 5 years$23,750
Median exit, net of selling cost$31,865
All-in annualised over 5 years$5,033/yr
Share of value per year15.7%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
12.8%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
+0.4%a year
The projection falls 12.4 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$32,000
Stamp duty$1,280
Running costs x 5 years$23,750
Selling cost at exit, 2.6% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$58,549
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.

Specification

Engine2.0L NA inline four
Power / torque135 kW / 205 Nm
0-100 km/h6.5 s
Transmission6sp manual
DriveRWD
Kerb weight1,070 kg
Built worldwideNot established
Delivered to Australia9,000
Effective AU survivors8,500
Australian sales / year1,050
Typical days on market45 days
Launch price$39,550

What moves the price on this model

Colour hierarchy
Original paint with an unchipped front bar+5%
A factory metallic rather than a solid colour+3%
Resprayed front bar, or a colour change-6%
Options
Later ND2 with the 135kW engine rather than the 118kW ND1+18%
No track history at all on an ND1 2.0+8%
Replacement soft-top already fitted to a 2015-2018 car+5%
Odometer sensitivity±1.6% per 10,000 km vs 77,000 km
Applied on top of these

Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.

Projected value in five years

Projected value at five years
$32,695
+2.2% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $32,000.
Even odds it lands between $26,751 and $37,413.
$21,394 lowhigh $41,665
The shaded range is even money and 40% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A weaker five year outlook than 57% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: +$695 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $23,750.
Duty and expected selling costs: $2,110.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $25,165, or $5,033 a year.
The projected value rise offsets part of the running cost. It does not make the car free to own.

The case for and against

The case for

A 1,070kg rear-drive manual roadster that about a thousand Australians buy or sell every year, so getting out of one is never the problem. The ND1 has already bottomed in the high $20,000s and repeated list price rises keep lifting replacement cost above it.

The case against

More than nine thousand delivered here and roughly eight and a half thousand still on the road, with the model still in production, so there is no scarcity case at any horizon. The ND1 2.0 has a rod bearing failure under track use that costs $11,000 to fix and gives no warning first.

Known faults and risks

Risk 1ND1 and ND2 trade as different cars at different money
Risk 2Rod bearing failure on a tracked ND1 2.0 is an $11,000 engine
Risk 3Soft-top fabric and rear window wear on 2015-2018 cars
ND1 2.0 rod-bearing / oil starvation failure under track use, engine replacement$11,000
Clutch and slave cylinder kit fitted$2,300
Soft-top fabric and rear-window wear on 2015-2018 cars, replacement top fitted$2,000
Early MZD Connect infotainment head-unit failure$1,850
Soft front-bar paint and stone chipping, respray front bar$1,250
Rear diff / driveshaft clunk and bush wear$1,050

Similar cars, and what they cost to run

Evidence behind this valueResearched · 0 recorded sales
Carried value
$32,000
Historical price
2016 · $32,0002026 · $32,000
Researched
An external source, but no itemised transactions. Indicative only.
There is no Australian transaction behind this figure

Not a thin record, none. The ND sells through dealers and private classifieds, neither of which publishes a completed price, and no Australian auction series for the model exists at all. What the value is anchored on is the live asking market and the car's own list price, and the page should be read that way.

Read the rest of the evidence notes (2 more)
Two cars trade under one name

The earlier ND1 2.0 is 118kW and 200Nm; the later ND2 carried here is 135kW and 205Nm, and the market separates them properly. A good ND2 2.0 GT manual asks $33,000 to $38,000 and a good ND1 $27,000 to $31,000, so the value here sits between them and describes neither exactly. Establish the series before reading the price.

This is a good used sports car and not a collectable one

Mazda has delivered more than nine thousand ND examples here since November 2015, the 2.0 taking about sixty-five per cent of the early ones, roughly eight and a half thousand survive and about one thousand change hands a year. That is a deep, liquid, ordinary used market with no scarcity case on any horizon this library can see. What holds it flat is the new car: repeated list price rises have pushed replacement cost up faster than these have aged. Mazda publishes no ND production volumes, so no worldwide build figure appears on this page.

What we will not sell you
We will not price a Mazda MX-5 against an advertisement.

No Australian transaction stands behind this value. A spec-adjusted figure built on it would look precise and would not be, so the report is refused instead of sold with a caveat. That goes for this car and 87 others. Everything above is free and stays free.

Read a real listing report
Watch this model
Told when the next one is called.

One line of email when this desk publishes a call on a Mazda MX-5 2.0 Roadster GT, or records a new Australian sale of one. Nothing else, no schedule, and on a quiet model you may hear nothing for months, which is itself worth knowing about a car you are chasing.

Free. One address, one model, and no account.