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Price opinion from advertisements and recorded sales. Not an inspection or a certified valuation.
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Reference photograph of a Subaru Impreza WRX STI
Valuation · Subaru · GD MY03-05 · 2003-05

Subaru Impreza WRX STI

2.0L turbo flat four (EJ207) · 195 kW / 343 Nm · 6sp manual · AWD
AVOIDRated within the $30k to $100k band · 85 of 94 at this money
Model value
$37,000
Must gain each year to break even
+12.4%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
47/100
Scored against the $30k to $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Measured
Four or more recorded Australian sales
$37,000
$29,949 lowhigh $41,594
Calibrated to recorded sales
Four ordinary Australian results, $35,000 to $86,000 - but two are delivery-distance cars the odometer cap cannot price. S203, S204 and Spec C results are excluded and sit elsewhere

Looking at an Impreza WRX STI for sale?

Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.

Should make, typical example
$37,000
At about 120,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.

Odometer only. Colour, options, history, condition and the photographs move it further, and that is what the report reads.

A person reads the advertisement and its photographs. Usually back within 48 hours. Read a real listing report

Price history

Today $37,000 · modelled median at five years $36,674
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $33,137 to $39,262
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($29,949 to $41,594). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.

The verdict

The numbers argue against it. Scores 47/100, ranking 85 of 94 in the $30k to $100k band. Demand durability is the strongest input, scarcity the weakest.
Running it costs about $5,200 a year (14.1% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $5,761 a year.
The model's five year median is $36,674, a -0.9% move, with the tenth percentile at $29,949.
Value calibrated to recorded sales.
Evidence
Measured4 recorded sales
Off its peak
-5%
Value band
tight
Multiple recorded transactions plus an aggregate source. Treat the level as reliable.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$5,761 a year all in, -0.9% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$37,000

Recorded sales

Every recorded observation, and when
9 rows on record
$94k$59k$25k
20222023202420252026
the value this record published, year by yearnow $37kwhat the model expects across 9k–101k kmsoldcontext, excluded1 row sits off this scale. Open the list below to see them.
Every row, with its price and note (9) ↓
Library value against the sold record
4 sales · median $46,325
Value $37,000
$35,000$86,000
2025Collecting Cars$52,500Sold
SOLD. 15 Oct 2025, Roxburgh Park VIC, 15,350km, Hawkeye
2024Collecting Cars$48,000Context, excluded
SOLD. 19 Apr 2024, Sydney NSW, 89,500km. S204 - a 600-car STI Japan limited edition, a different variant, excluded from this record
2023Collecting Cars$70,000Context, excluded
SOLD. 23 Oct 2023, Box Hill North VIC, 85,780km, Spec C Type RA - a JDM homologation special, context only
2023Collecting Cars$24,850Context, excluded
SOLD. 21 Sep 2023, Delacombe VIC, 232,250km. Spec C Type RA, a JDM homologation special, excluded from this record. The same special at high distance and a third of the money
2023Collecting Cars$40,150Sold
SOLD. 23 Feb 2023, Sydney NSW, 80,432km
2023Collecting Cars$39,975Context, excluded
SOLD. 6 Feb 2023, Ballarat VIC, 111,386km. Spec C, the stripped JDM homologation shell, excluded from this record
2021Collecting Cars$86,000Sold
SOLD. 4 Mar 2021, Melbourne VIC, 8,858km. Delivery distance and the top of the set
2021Collecting Cars$35,000Context, excluded
SOLD. 1 Jul 2021, Perth WA, 104,243km. Spec C, the stripped JDM homologation shell, excluded from this record
2021Collecting Cars$35,000Sold
SOLD. 30 Nov 2021, Sydney NSW, 101,230km
4 completed Australian sales of 9 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.

Score breakdown

Against the $30k to $100k band median
94 cars in band · ink tick marks the median
Ownership economics30% of total
45/100-10
Scarcity25% of total
29/100-24
Demand durability20% of total
60/100-6
Liquidity15% of total
58/100+6
Risk resilience10% of total
58/100+22
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 47/100. Medians are computed live from the 94 cars currently in the $30k to $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
45/100
Baseline80 pts
− 14.1% of value a year to run-35 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)45 pts
Scarcity25% weight
29/100
Baseline15 pts
+ Roughly 900 estimated survivors of a small ADM allocation+14 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)29 pts
Demand durability20% weight
60/100
Baseline30 pts
+ Definitive 2000s rally hero, demand proven globally+24 pts
+ US six-figure results pulling attention to the era+6 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)60 pts
Liquidity15% weight
58/100
Baseline8 pts
+ 52 days on market+36 pts
+ 170 sales a year+14 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)58 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
58/100
Baseline90 pts
− Most cars modified, originality now scarce-22 pts
− EJ207 ringland and bearing failures on tuned cars-10 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)58 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.

What it costs to own · about 5,455 km a year

Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$5,200a year
Share of value per year
14.1%
Scheduled servicing$90017%
Tyres, annualised$85016%
Registration and CTP$75014%
Insurance$1,60031%
Sinking fund (failure table)$1,10021%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$38,480
Running costs × 5 years$26,000
Median exit, net of selling cost$35,674
All-in annualised over 5 years$5,761/yr
Share of value per year15.6%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
12.4%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
-0.2%a year
The projection falls 12.5 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$37,000
Stamp duty$1,480
Running costs x 5 years$26,000
Selling cost at exit, 2.7% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$66,271
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.

Specification

Engine2.0L turbo flat four (EJ207)
Power / torque195 kW / 343 Nm
0-100 km/h5.2 s
Transmission6sp manual
DriveAWD
Kerb weight1,470 kg
Built worldwide45,000
Delivered to Australia1,400
Effective AU survivors900
Australian sales / year170
Typical days on market52 days
Launch price$56,630

What moves the price on this model

Colour hierarchy
WR Blue with gold wheels+6%
Java Black Pearl (MY04 only)+3%
White0%
Silver-2%
Options
Factory forged BBS alloys+3%
STI catalogue aero and carbon accessories+2%
Original airbox and exhaust still fitted+4%
Odometer sensitivity±3.5% per 10,000 km vs 120,000 km
Applied on top of these

Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.

Projected value in five years

Projected value at five years
$36,674
-0.9% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $37,000.
Even odds it lands between $33,137 and $39,262.
$29,949 lowhigh $41,594
The shaded range is even money and 18% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A weaker five year outlook than 65% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: -$326 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $26,000.
Duty and expected selling costs: $2,480.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $28,805, or $5,761 a year.
The projected value fall is added to the running cost. Depreciation is the larger number here.

The case for and against

The case for

The era's halo car in its Australian form, with the American market already demonstrating what a perfect one is worth to somebody. Stock, low-km ADM cars are nearly extinct and the trajectory since 2019 has been one-way.

The case against

Only two of the four Australian results sit at real-world distance, and both are more than three years old. The US results that make headlines price a different engine, and a modified example, which is most of them, participates in little of the upside.

Known faults and risks

Risk 1Tuned and returned-to-stock cars
Risk 2Ringland/bearing failure on modified engines
Risk 3Crash and theft history in the segment
Ringland/bearing rebuild (tuned cars)$9,000
2nd gear synchro$2,500
Clutch and flywheel$1,600

Similar cars, and what they cost to run

Evidence behind this valueMeasured · 4 recorded sales
Carried value
$37,000
Historical price
2016 · $28,0002026 · $37,000
Measured
Multiple recorded transactions plus an aggregate source. Treat the level as reliable.
Thirteen Australian results were once read here as one set, and two fits agreed on them

That set correlates at minus 0.636 and implies 4.3 per cent per 10,000 kilometres; stripping the two delivery-distance outliers leaves eleven cars fitting at minus 0.412 and 2.8 per cent. At the 120,000 kilometres this record expects the two fits return $40,929 and $40,445 - within $500 of each other, which is the closest agreement between two independent fits in this library. The value moves $45,000 to $41,000 and the distance penalty from 1.2 to 3.5, the blend of the two.

Read the rest of the evidence notes (14 more)
The JDM specials are their own market and are held as context

A Spec C Type RA made $70,000 at 85,780km in October 2023, roughly seventy per cent above the ordinary curve at that distance, while another Spec C Type RA at 232,250km made $24,850 - the specials command a premium only while the distance is low. A delivery-distance car made $86,000 at 8,858km in March 2021.

One row was excluded

A WRX Club Spec Evo 8 at $8,000 is a base WRX, not an STI, and belongs to a different car entirely.

A data-quality warning that affects every record sourced this way

Eight of these listings carry the identical VIN, 6ZZ00000GDB032485, across different years, distances and states. It is a placeholder, not a chassis number, so VINs from this source cannot be used to detect a car being relisted or flipped - which is how two flips were caught elsewhere in this library. SOURCING: aggregator-surfaced results, unconfirmed against the auction house, the weakest evidence grade here.

Australian auction record, almost

An 8,858km one-owner MY04 STI in World Rally Blue sold on Collecting Cars out of Melbourne in March 2021, but the platform no longer publishes the price, so the one known transaction cannot anchor a level. Everything else here is research. The Australian MY03-05 STI listed at $56,630 with the 2.0-litre EJ207 at 195kW and a six-speed manual.

International context, and why it must be handled carefully

American blobeye STIs have brought spectacular money (a near-perfect unmodified 2004 made US$112,000 in early 2026), but the American car runs the 2.5-litre EJ257, a different engine to the Australian and Japanese EJ207 cars, so those results price a different machine. They demonstrate demand for the era at full strength; they do not translate to an Australian figure.

The pattern this library keeps finding

Applies in reverse here: international data that looks relevant and is not. What the American results do establish is that condition and originality dominate: the six-figure cars are the untouched ones, and the gap between stock and modified is the widest in the class.

The counterweight

A Subaru WRX STI sedan, generation unstated, sold for just $22,000 at Shannons in February 2022. Whatever that car was, it is what an ordinary STI is worth when the originality story is absent - the halo numbers belong to exceptional cars only. One more marker from the same house: a 2000-model WRX STi - GC8-generation - made $45,000 at Shannons in 2024, which sits exactly where this GD value sits and supports the read that the era's ordinary cars trade in the forties.

The S203 has been split out into its own record and its four results have left this one

$33,771, $34,500, $44,006 and $52,500 were being counted here as ordinary comparables, which they are not: the S203 is a 555-car STI Japan limited edition on a balanced engine with a titanium exhaust, and none came to Australia new. This record already set the S204 and the Spec C Type RA aside on exactly that reasoning; the S203 rows simply carried no marker. Two of the four also turned out to be one car - build number 440 of 555, sold at Cranbourne West in June 2023 and again at Beecroft in September 2025, up 2.2 per cent. Everything remaining here describes the ordinary GD STI.

And the value has been re-derived, because the set it was built on has changed

With the S203, S204 and Spec C rows properly excluded, four ordinary GD STI results remain: $35,000 at 101,230km in November 2021, $40,150 at 80,432km in February 2023, $86,000 at 8,858km in March 2021 and $52,500 at 15,350km in October 2025.

Two of those four cannot be used, and the reason is this model's own odometer cap

The adjustment is limited to twelve per cent either way. A car at 8,858 kilometres sits 111,000 below the 120,000 this record expects, and the model can credit it with twelve per cent - so a one-owner delivery-distance survivor de-adjusts to $76,786, and a 15,350-kilometre Hawkeye to $46,875. Those are not valuations, they are the cap reporting that it has run out of room. This library cannot price a delivery-mileage GD STI and should say so rather than pretend.

The two results at real-world distance imply $32,864 and $35,848

At the expected 120,000 kilometres. The value moves from $41,000 to $37,000, above both because both are more than two and a half years old and the one recent result in the set - low-distance though it is - printed $52,500 in October 2025.

What is missing and it is the obvious thing

An ordinary Australian-delivered GD STI between 60,000 and 140,000 kilometres, sold recently. There is not one. Every recent result on this model is either a limited edition or a preserved car, which is exactly the sampling bias that makes an auction record read higher than the market it sits in.

The twelve per cent odometer cap is gone, and this record is the case that argued for removing it

The paragraph above says two of four results cannot be used because the cap cannot price a delivery-distance car. It can now. The model runs a constant-elasticity curve instead of a clamped straight line, and at 8,858 kilometres against the 120,000 this record expects it returns $72,150 where the cap returned $41,440. That car made $86,000 in March 2021, which indexes to about $82,140 in current money, so the model is now within twelve per cent of it rather than half of it.

At 15,350 kilometres the curve returns the same $72,150 and the car made $56,090 indexed,

So the new rail is doing at the top of the range what the old cap did across all of it. The rail sits at 1.95 times the carried value because no counted Australian sale in this library has ever exceeded 2.10 times its record's figure and the ninety-ninth percentile is 1.96. Two results that could not be used are now one result that is priced close and one that is priced high, which is progress and not a solution.

This page prices the model.
The report prices the car in the advertisement.

Send the link. A person reads the advertisement and its photographs and sends back what that Subaru Impreza WRX STI is worth, what to offer and when to walk away, with five years of costs at the distance you drive.

Read a real listing report

Backed by 4 recorded Australian sales of this model. Read a complete one on a real car first. Seventeen sections, no account, nothing to pay.

This model, today$37,000
Half of sales are further out than$4,136
The report$249
17×
the price of the report: what half of real sales of this model sit further from this page's number than, on this car
Watch this model
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One line of email when this desk publishes a call on a Subaru Impreza WRX STI, or records a new Australian sale of one. Nothing else, no schedule, and on a quiet model you may hear nothing for months, which is itself worth knowing about a car you are chasing.

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Impreza WRX STI for sale?Priced by a person, $249