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Price opinion from advertisements and recorded sales. Not an inspection or a certified valuation.
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Reference photograph of a Lexus LFA
Valuation · Lexus · LFA10 · 2011-12

Lexus LFA

4.8L NA V10 (1LR-GUE) · 412 kW / 480 Nm · 6sp automated sequential · RWD
CONSIDERRated within the over $100k band · 10 of 104 at this money
Research estimate
$1,250,000
Must gain each year to break even
+3.7%
The projection clears it. 14 of 244 in the library do.
CarQuant score
72/100
Scored against the over $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Researched
No Australian transaction of any kind
$1,250,000
$876,218 lowhigh $2,686,922
Researched, no recorded transaction
No verified Australian sale on record. 500 built, 10 delivered here
Measured across this library, a value with no Australian result behind it runs high about seven times in ten, by a median of ten per cent. Read this one as a ceiling rather than a midpoint.

Looking at an LFA for sale?

Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.

Should make, typical example
$1,250,000
At about 12,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.

No Australian sale stands behind this value, so treat the figure as indicative.

We will not sell a report on this car. The check above stays free.

Price history

Today $1,250,000 · modelled median at five years $1,555,232
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $1,198,071 to $2,150,501
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($876,218 to $2,686,922). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.

The verdict

A defensible case with reservations. Scores 72/100, ranking 10 of 104 in the over $100k band. Scarcity is the strongest input, liquidity the weakest.
Running it costs about $32,500 a year (2.6% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is -$12,946 a year.
The model's five year median is $1,555,232, a +24.4% move, with the tenth percentile at $876,218.
Value is research, not a measurement. Treat the level as indicative and the structure as the analysis.
Evidence
Researched0 recorded sales
Off its peak
at peak
Value band
wide
An external source, but no itemised transactions. Indicative only.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)-$12,946 a year all in, +24.4% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$1,250,000

Recorded sales

No individual sales are logged for this vehicle.
The value is supported by the aggregate evidence noted at the top of this report, but the underlying transactions are not itemised here.

Score breakdown

Against the over $100k band median
104 cars in band · ink tick marks the median
Ownership economics30% of total
73/100+4
Scarcity25% of total
100/100+35
Demand durability20% of total
98/100+20
Liquidity15% of total
6/100-26
Risk resilience10% of total
50/100+16
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 72/100. Medians are computed live from the 104 cars currently in the over $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
73/100
Baseline80 pts
− 2.6% of value a year to run-7 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)73 pts
Scarcity25% weight
100/100
Baseline90 pts
+ 500 built worldwide and ten delivered to Australia+28 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)100 pts
Demand durability20% weight
98/100
Baseline72 pts
+ The 1LR V10 revs to 9,500rpm and is routinely named the finest engine of the modern era+20 pts
+ Toyota engineering reliability under a carbon-tub supercar body+6 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)98 pts
Liquidity15% weight
6/100
Baseline0 pts
+ Australian sales occur years apart and every one is an event+4 pts
+ 200 days on market+2 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)6 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
50/100
Baseline70 pts
− No verified Australian transaction anywhere in this record-12 pts
− The level rests on the American market and the exchange rate-8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)50 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.

What it costs to own · about 2,500 km a year

Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$32,500a year
Share of value per year
2.6%
Scheduled servicing$6,50020%
Tyres, annualised$4,20013%
Registration and CTP$8002%
Insurance$13,00040%
Sinking fund (failure table)$8,00025%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$1,300,000
Running costs × 5 years$162,500
Median exit, net of selling cost$1,527,232
All-in annualised over 5 years-$12,946/yr
Share of value per year-1.0%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
3.7%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
+4.5%a year
The projection clears the hurdle by 0.8 points a year. On these assumptions the car covers its own costs and leaves a surplus.
Purchase$1,250,000
Stamp duty$50,000
Running costs x 5 years$162,500
Selling cost at exit, 2.2% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$1,496,011
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.

Specification

Engine4.8L NA V10 (1LR-GUE)
Power / torque412 kW / 480 Nm
0-100 km/h3.7 s
Transmission6sp automated sequential
DriveRWD
Kerb weight1,480 kg
Built worldwide500
Delivered to Australia10
Effective AU survivors10
Australian sales / year1
Typical days on market200 days
Launch price$750,000

What moves the price on this model

Colour hierarchy
Whitest White (matte)+8%
Pearl White+4%
Pearl Red+5%
Passionate Black+1%
Options
Nurburgring Package+90%
One of the ten Australian-delivered cars+15%
Complete Lexus service history from new+8%
Original fitted Tumi luggage with matching VIN+4%
Odometer sensitivity±2.5% per 10,000 km vs 12,000 km
Applied on top of these

Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.

Projected value in five years

Projected value at five years
$1,555,232
+24.4% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $1,250,000.
Even odds it lands between $1,198,071 and $2,150,501.
$876,218 lowhigh $2,686,922
The shaded range is even money and 79% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A stronger five year outlook than 91% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: +$305,232 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $162,500.
Duty and expected selling costs: $78,000.
Net cost of five years of ownership: -$64,730, or -$12,946 a year.
The projected value rise offsets part of the running cost. It does not make the car free to own.

The case for and against

The case for

Five hundred built, ten in the country, and an engine that has become the model's whole argument: a 9,500rpm V10 co-developed with Yamaha that the road-test consensus places above anything else of its era. American results keep setting new highs and the car has already appreciated past every other Japanese production car.

The case against

There is no verified Australian sale on record, so the figure rests on converted American results. The single-clutch automated gearbox is the one part of the car its era shows in, and at this level a Australian buyer competes with collectors worldwide for ten cars that rarely change hands.

Known faults and risks

Risk 1No verified Australian transaction to price against
Risk 2Single-clutch gearbox service and clutch cost
Risk 3Currency exposure on any exit
Clutch replacement (automated single-clutch)$18,000
Annual specialist service$6,500
Carbon tub inspection after any impactdocumentation

Similar cars, and what they cost to run

Evidence behind this valueResearched · 0 recorded sales
Carried value
$1,250,000
Historical price
2012 · $750,0002026 · $1,250,000
Researched
An external source, but no itemised transactions. Indicative only.
No verified Australian sale on record

Ten of the 500 cars built came to Australia at launch, priced around $700,000 to $750,000 depending on specification, and at least one sat unsold in a dealership as a showroom centrepiece until 2023, when the compliance deadline for the Register of Approved Vehicles forced its reporting as sold. Shannons offered the one-owner Melbourne car, delivered new by Lexus of Blackburn and serviced there since, at a Winter timed auction; the archive available to this library does not publish its result, so nothing from that lot is encoded.

Read the rest of the evidence notes (2 more)
Domestic price points,

All asks: $990,000 was sought for a 26,426-kilometre car and about $1,075,000 for car number 177 across 2017 and 2018, and Dutton Garage currently holds the Australian-delivered Pearl White build number 232 without a published price.

American context

Ordinary cars have traded between roughly US$720,000 and US$1,000,000 in recent years, converting to about $1,100,000 to $1,550,000, and a Florida dealer currently asks US$899,000, which converts near $1,380,000. The $1,250,000 carried here sits inside that converted sold band and under the converted asks, above the decade-old domestic asks that predate the model's strongest years. Nurburgring Package cars are a far dearer sub-model and are set aside. The value is a researched estimate.

What we will not sell you
We will not price a Lexus LFA against an advertisement.

No Australian transaction stands behind this value. A spec-adjusted figure built on it would look precise and would not be, so the report is refused instead of sold with a caveat. That goes for this car and 87 others. Everything above is free and stays free.

Read a real listing report
Watch this model
Told when the next one is called.

One line of email when this desk publishes a call on a Lexus LFA, or records a new Australian sale of one. Nothing else, no schedule, and on a quiet model you may hear nothing for months, which is itself worth knowing about a car you are chasing.

Free. One address, one model, and no account.