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Price opinion from advertisements and recorded sales. Not an inspection or a certified valuation.
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Reference photograph of a Subaru WRX STI VA
Valuation · Subaru · VA · 2015-21

Subaru WRX STI VA

2.5L turbo flat four (EJ257) · 221 kW / 407 Nm · 6sp manual · AWD
AVOIDRated within the $30k to $100k band · 80 of 94 at this money
Model value
$37,500
Must gain each year to break even
+11.3%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
48/100
Scored against the $30k to $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Thin
One to three recorded Australian sales
$37,500
$27,225 lowhigh $40,981
Calibrated to a thin record
Three Australian results, $36,000 to $45,500. An S207 at $54,000 is a different variant and is excluded. Created August 2026 to close a generation gap

Looking at a WRX STI for sale?

Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.

Should make, typical example
$37,500
At about 90,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.

Odometer only. Colour, options, history, condition and the photographs move it further, and that is what the report reads.

A person reads the advertisement and its photographs. Usually back within 48 hours. Read a real listing report

Price history

Today $37,500 · modelled median at five years $35,066
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $30,942 to $38,177
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($27,225 to $40,981). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.

The verdict

The numbers argue against it. Scores 48/100, ranking 80 of 94 in the $30k to $100k band. Demand durability is the strongest input, scarcity the weakest.
Running it costs about $4,650 a year (12.4% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $5,637 a year.
The model's five year median is $35,066, a -6.5% move, with the tenth percentile at $27,225.
Value calibrated to a thin record. Treat the level as provisional.
Evidence
Thin3 recorded sales
Off its peak
-22%
Value band
moderate
Multiple recorded transactions plus an aggregate source. Treat the level as reliable.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$5,637 a year all in, -6.5% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity requires a decade of attrition
Negotiate from$37,500

Recorded sales

Every recorded observation, and when
4 rows on record
$64k$48k$31k
2023202420252026
the value this record published, year by yearnow $38kwhat the model expects across 8k–113k kmsoldcontext, excluded
Every row, with its price and note (4) ↓
Library value against the sold record
3 sales · median $42,550
Value $37,500
$36,000$45,500
2025Collecting Cars$54,000Context, excluded
SOLD. 16 Dec 2025, Zetland NSW, 69,388km. Number 164 of 400. The S207 is a JDM limited edition on a balanced EJ20 with a twin-scroll ball-bearing turbocharger, 11:1 steering, Bilstein DampMatic II and six-pot Brembos - a different variant, excluded from this record and held as evidence of the premium. World Rally Blue, imported unregistered, nine dated Japanese entries from 1,315km in March 2016
2024Collecting Cars$45,500Sold
SOLD. 18 Apr 2024, Werribee VIC, 7,773km
2024Collecting Cars$42,550Sold
SOLD. 5 Apr 2024, Sans Souci NSW, 26,553km
2022Collecting Cars$36,000Sold
SOLD. 21 Jul 2022, South Yarra VIC, 113,085km, Premium
3 completed Australian sales of 4 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.

Score breakdown

Against the $30k to $100k band median
94 cars in band · ink tick marks the median
Ownership economics30% of total
49/100-6
Scarcity25% of total
22/100-31
Demand durability20% of total
70/100+4
Liquidity15% of total
66/100+14
Risk resilience10% of total
40/100+4
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 48/100. Medians are computed live from the 94 cars currently in the $30k to $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
49/100
Baseline80 pts
− 12.4% of value a year to run-31 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)49 pts
Scarcity25% weight
22/100
Baseline22 pts
+ An estimated 3,800 Australian survivors, still a common car0 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)22 pts
Demand durability20% weight
70/100
Baseline52 pts
+ The last EJ-engined and last manual-only STI, which is the whole collector case+18 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)70 pts
Liquidity15% weight
66/100
Baseline50 pts
+ Deep, active market at 32 days on market+16 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)66 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
40/100
Baseline48 pts
− EJ257 ringland risk on tuned examples, robust if genuinely stock-8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)40 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.

What it costs to own · about 11,250 km a year

Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$4,650a year
Share of value per year
12.4%
Scheduled servicing$85018%
Tyres, annualised$85018%
Registration and CTP$80017%
Insurance$1,45031%
Sinking fund (failure table)$70015%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$39,000
Running costs × 5 years$23,250
Median exit, net of selling cost$34,066
All-in annualised over 5 years$5,637/yr
Share of value per year15.0%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
11.3%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
-1.3%a year
The projection falls 12.6 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$37,500
Stamp duty$1,500
Running costs x 5 years$23,250
Selling cost at exit, 2.7% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$63,955
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.

Specification

Engine2.5L turbo flat four (EJ257)
Power / torque221 kW / 407 Nm
0-100 km/h5.2 s
Transmission6sp manual
DriveAWD
Kerb weight1,540 kg
Built worldwide90,000
Delivered to Australia4,200
Effective AU survivors3,800
Australian sales / year260
Typical days on market32 days
Launch price$54,990

What moves the price on this model

Colour hierarchy
WR Blue Pearl+6%
Crystal White Pearl0%
Dark Grey-1%
Options
Genuine unmodified ECU+6%
Original exhaust and intake fitted+5%
Full Subaru service history+4%
Odometer sensitivity±2% per 10,000 km vs 90,000 km
Applied on top of these

Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.

Projected value in five years

Projected value at five years
$35,066
-6.5% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $37,500.
Even odds it lands between $30,942 and $38,177.
$27,225 lowhigh $40,981
The shaded range is even money and 23% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A weaker five year outlook than 77% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: -$2,434 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $23,250.
Duty and expected selling costs: $2,500.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $28,185, or $5,637 a year.
The projected value fall is added to the running cost. Depreciation is the larger number here.

The case for and against

The case for

The last EJ-engined STI and the last one sold manual-only, which is the pattern that has put a floor under every earlier generation in this library. Four Australian results now sit behind the figure, which is more transaction evidence than most records here carry.

The case against

A 2015-21 car still inside ordinary depreciation, with an estimated 3,800 Australian survivors, so this is not yet a scarcity play and the price history shows the fall rather than a recovery. The EJ257 carries ringland risk on tuned cars and a genuinely stock tune has to be verified rather than assumed. The distance term is blended from three confounded results, not measured.

Known faults and risks

Risk 1Still inside ordinary depreciation rather than appreciating
Risk 2Ringland failure risk if tuned
Risk 3Verifying a genuine stock ECU tune
Ringland repair$4,600
Clutch replacement$1,300
Wheel bearing replacement$700

Similar cars, and what they cost to run

Evidence behind this valueThin · 3 recorded sales
Carried value
$37,500
Historical price
2016 · $48,0002026 · $37,500
Thin
Multiple recorded transactions plus an aggregate source. Treat the level as reliable.
This record did not exist until August 2026 and that was a hole

The library carried the GD STI (2003-05) and the GRB (2008-14) and then stopped, so the entire VA generation - the last EJ-engined STI Subaru built, and the one most likely to be collected - had nowhere to sit. Four Australian results are now available and they are enough to open it.

Read the rest of the evidence notes (5 more)
The three standard cars

$45,500 at 7,773km in Werribee, Victoria, April 2024; $42,550 at 26,553km at Sans Souci, New South Wales, April 2024; and $36,000 at 113,085km for a 2015 Premium in South Yarra, July 2022.

The distance term is a blend, not a measurement

The two April 2024 cars are 18,780 kilometres and 6.5 per cent apart, which reads as 3.5 per cent per 10,000 kilometres - but they are also a 2021 and a 2018, so model year is doing part of that work. The 2015 car is from a different market moment two years earlier. kmPct is set at 2.0 as a blend of the three and this record does NOT claim to have measured it, which is the honest position on three confounded points.

The fourth result is a different car and is excluded from the base

A 2016 S207 made $54,000 at 69,388km in Zetland, New South Wales in December 2025. The S207 is a 400-car JDM limited edition, not an Australian-delivered STI, and against what a standard car at that distance supports - roughly $38,900 - it carries about a 39 per cent premium. That premium is real and it is not this record. If S207s start appearing here regularly they need their own entry, exactly as the SP does on the MX-5 side.

What is carried rather than researched

Production, survivor and running-cost figures are carried from the GRB record and adjusted, not independently established. They should be treated as estimates until replaced.

The investment shape

This is the end of the EJ line and the last manual-only STI, which is the pattern that has formed a floor under every previous generation in this library - but it is a 2015-21 car still inside ordinary depreciation, and the history below says so.

This page prices the model.
The report prices the car in the advertisement.

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Read a real listing report

The evidence on this model is thin and the report says so on its cover. Read a complete one on a real car first. Seventeen sections, no account, nothing to pay.

This model, today$37,500
Half of sales are further out than$4,192
The report$249
17×
the price of the report: what half of real sales of this model sit further from this page's number than, on this car
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