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Price opinion from advertisements and recorded sales. Not an inspection or a certified valuation.
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Reference photograph of a Mitsubishi Lancer Evolution IX MR
Valuation · Mitsubishi · CT9A · 2006-2007

Mitsubishi Lancer Evolution IX MR

2.0L turbo MIVEC four · 214 kW / 392 Nm · 6sp manual · AWD
BUYRated within the $30k to $100k band · 4 of 94 at this money
Model value
$72,500
Must gain each year to break even
+9.3%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
62/100
Scored against the $30k to $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Thin
One to three recorded Australian sales
$72,500
$66,156 lowhigh $116,606
Calibrated to a thin record
Two Australian results, $46,250 in May 2024 and $47,500 in May 2026, and neither is an MR. These prices reach this library through a third-party compiler rather than from the selling house: Collecting Cars publishes the car, the date, the suburb, the odometer and the condition report, and puts the final figure behind a login. They are carried as evidence on that basis and the provenance is stated here so it can be weighed.

Looking at a Lancer for sale?

Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.

Should make, typical example
$72,500
At about 55,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.

Odometer only. Colour, options, history, condition and the photographs move it further, and that is what the report reads.

A person reads the advertisement and its photographs. Usually back within 48 hours. Read a real listing report

Price history

Today $72,500 · modelled median at five years $88,606
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $76,797 to $103,334
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($66,156 to $116,606). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.

The verdict

Strong within its price band. Scores 62/100, ranking 4 of 94 in the $30k to $100k band. Demand durability is the strongest input, risk resilience the weakest.
Running it costs about $6,910 a year (9.5% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $4,645 a year.
The model's five year median is $88,606, a +22.2% move, with the tenth percentile at $66,156.
Value calibrated to a thin record. Treat the level as provisional.
Evidence
Thin2 recorded sales
Off its peak
at peak
Value band
wide
At least one recorded transaction plus a source. Direction is sound, the exact level less so.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
This value sits above every recorded sale logged for the model. That is the specific error calibration keeps finding, so treat it as a ceiling rather than a mid-point.
Short term (1-5 years)$4,645 a year all in, +22.2% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$72,500

Recorded sales

Every recorded observation, and when
2 rows on record
$76k$59k$43k
20252026
the value this record published, year by yearnow $73kwhat the model expects across 86k–173k kmsold
Every row, with its price and note (2) ↓
Library value against the sold record
2 sales · median $46,875
Value $72,500
$46,250$47,500
The library value sits above the highest recorded sale; the evidence note above explains why.
May 2026AutoMarkets$47,500Sold
SOLD. 28 May 2026, Moorebank NSW, 172,664km. STANDARD EVOLUTION IX, NOT AN MR - included as the local ceiling reference for a high-km standard car; recorded result, not individually verified.
May 2024Collecting Cars$46,250Sold
SOLD. 3 May 2024, Melbourne VIC, 85,728km. 2006 Evolution IX MR, 6sp manual, Japanese import first registered Sept 2006 and 2.5 years with the Australian seller, Graphite Grey Pearl, factory Bilsteins, BBS forged wheels and HIDs, extensively modified with GReddy radiator and intercooler, HKS turbo manifold and Tomei titanium exhaust, driver's bolster wear, rego inspection Dec 2023 no advisories.
2 completed Australian sales of 2 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.

Published calls on this car

1 call on this model has been published and settled, and none sold, so there is nothing to grade.

Unsold2026-09-11
No sale at Maddingley, Victoria. Absent from the sold results by 2 October, with no high bid published, so there is nothing to grade against.
Called
$46,500

Score breakdown

Against the $30k to $100k band median
94 cars in band · ink tick marks the median
Ownership economics30% of total
60/100+5
Scarcity25% of total
60/100+7
Demand durability20% of total
82/100+16
Liquidity15% of total
63/100+11
Risk resilience10% of total
29/100-7
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 62/100. Medians are computed live from the 94 cars currently in the $30k to $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
60/100
Baseline84 pts
− 9.5% of value a year to run-24 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)60 pts
Scarcity25% weight
60/100
Baseline20 pts
+ 105 survivors estimated in Australia+40 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)60 pts
Demand durability20% weight
82/100
Baseline58 pts
+ The last and best-developed of the 4G63 Evolutions+16 pts
+ MIVEC head and the six-speed make it the one collectors name+10 pts
+ Japanese-market only, so the local population is tiny+6 pts
− Four-door Mitsubishi sedan is not a universal taste-8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)82 pts
Liquidity15% weight
63/100
Baseline12 pts
+ 50 days on market+40 pts
+ 15 sales a year+11 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)63 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
29/100
Baseline58 pts
− Aluminium roof panel cannot be conventionally repaired-12 pts
− ACD and AYC parts are constrained and getting worse-10 pts
− Thin transaction record-7 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)29 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.

What it costs to own · about 2,821 km a year

Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$6,910a year
Share of value per year
9.5%
Scheduled servicing$1,56023%
Tyres, annualised$1,06015%
Registration and CTP$83012%
Insurance$1,97029%
Sinking fund (failure table)$1,49022%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$75,400
Running costs × 5 years$34,550
Median exit, net of selling cost$86,726
All-in annualised over 5 years$4,645/yr
Share of value per year6.4%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
9.3%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
+4.1%a year
The projection falls 5.2 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$72,500
Stamp duty$2,900
Running costs x 5 years$34,550
Selling cost at exit, 2.6% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$112,877
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.

Specification

Engine2.0L turbo MIVEC four
Power / torque214 kW / 392 Nm
0-100 km/h5.7 s
Transmission6sp manual
DriveAWD
Kerb weight1,320 kg
Built worldwideNot established
Delivered to AustraliaNone. Every car here is an import
Effective AU survivors105 (imported)
Australian sales / year15
Typical days on market50 days
Launch priceNever sold new in Australia

What moves the price on this model

Colour hierarchy
Original paint, unresprayed+6%
Wicked White or Graphite Grey+3%
Resprayed after damage-9%
Options
Genuine MR with the six-speed, aluminium roof and BBS wheels+30%
Standard boost with documented service history+14%
Unmodified interior with the original Recaro trim+8%
Odometer sensitivity±1.8% per 10,000 km vs 55,000 km
Applied on top of these

Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.

Projected value in five years

Projected value at five years
$88,606
+22.2% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $72,500.
Even odds it lands between $76,797 and $103,334.
$66,156 lowhigh $116,606
The shaded range is even money and 35% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A stronger five year outlook than 89% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: +$16,106 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $34,550.
Duty and expected selling costs: $4,780.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $23,225, or $4,645 a year.
The projected value rise offsets part of the running cost. It does not make the car free to own.

The case for and against

The case for

The last 4G63 Evolution, with the MIVEC head and the six-speed, and the one the model line is remembered by. Japanese-market only, so Australia holds very few and the ones here were bought deliberately.

The case against

A hard-used 4G63 with raised boost is a $17,000 rebuild, and the aluminium roof cannot be panel-beaten. The Australian public record is thin enough that a single wrong comparable moves the whole picture.

Known faults and risks

Risk 1A widely circulated $173,000 result was a Californian sale, not an Australian one
Risk 2Aluminium roof panel damage is expensive and hard to source
Risk 3ACD and AYC pump failure with constrained parts supply
Rod bearing and bottom end failure on a boosted 4G63, rebuild$17,000
Aluminium roof panel damage, cannot be repaired conventionally and hard to source$10,500
ACD and AYC pump or unit failure, parts-constrained$5,500
Turbo failure, the titanium-aluminide turbine is fragile if over-boosted$5,250
Transfer case and rear diff wear from mismatched tyres$4,250

Similar cars, and what they cost to run

Evidence behind this valueThin · 2 recorded sales
Carried value
$72,500
Historical price
2016 · $45,0002026 · $72,500
Thin
At least one recorded transaction plus a source. Direction is sound, the exact level less so.
The two results everyone quotes are not Australian

A $173,000 figure and a 68,900 pound figure circulate freely against this model. The first was a California sale and the second a Heritage Fleet sale in the United Kingdom. Neither tells an Australian buyer anything about an Australian price, and converting either into dollars would produce a number that looks like evidence and is not. Neither is on this page.

Read the rest of the evidence notes (3 more)
What Australia actually has

Mitsubishi Australia sold the standard Evolution IX from April 2006 at $56,789. The MR - MIVEC head, six-speed, aluminium roof, BBS wheels - was never offered here, so every Australian MR is a private import and the local population is very small.

The two Australian results are both standard cars,

At $46,250 in May 2024 and $47,500 in May 2026. They bracket the bottom of the MR band from below, they are flat against each other across two years, and they are the closest local anchor that exists. The MR premium above them is judgement.

The headline fall in the compiled record is an artefact

The figure of minus 47 per cent quoted for this model in the aggregated data is a GT-A automatic wagon measured against a GSR sedan - a mix effect, not a market movement. It is exactly the kind of number this library refuses to carry. The value here rests on two standard-car results and a judgement about what the MR is worth over them, and the page says which part is which.

This page prices the model.
The report prices the car in the advertisement.

Send the link. A person reads the advertisement and its photographs and sends back what that Mitsubishi Lancer Evolution IX MR is worth, what to offer and when to walk away, with five years of costs at the distance you drive.

Read a real listing report

The evidence on this model is thin and the report says so on its cover. Read a complete one on a real car first. Seventeen sections, no account, nothing to pay.

This model, today$72,500
Half of sales are further out than$8,105
The report$249
33×
the price of the report: what half of real sales of this model sit further from this page's number than, on this car
Watch this model
Told when the next one is called.

One line of email when this desk publishes a call on a Mitsubishi Lancer Evolution IX MR, or records a new Australian sale of one. Nothing else, no schedule, and on a quiet model you may hear nothing for months, which is itself worth knowing about a car you are chasing.

Free. One address, one model, and no account.
Lancer for sale?Priced by a person, $249