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Valuation · Ford · XB · 1973-76
Ford Falcon GT 351 Hardtop
5.8L V8 (351 Cleveland) · 216 kW / 515 Nm · 4sp manual · RWD
CONSIDERRated within the over $100k band · 37 of 104 at this money
Model value
$168,000
Must gain each year to break even
+7.0%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
65/100
Scored against the over $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Thin
One to three recorded Australian sales
$168,000
$140,587 lowhigh $265,149
Calibrated to a thin record
$167,500average
$100,000low
$235,000high
automarkets.com.au XB Falcon: average $167,500, range $100,000-$235,000 from 2 recorded results, latest $235,000; an XB Fairmont hardtop made $129,250 at Lloyds 2023
Measured across this library, a value resting on a single Australian result runs high about six times in ten, by a median of five per cent.
Looking at a Falcon GT for sale?
Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.
Should make, typical example
$168,000
At about 70,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.
Odometer only. Colour, options, history, condition and the photographs move it further, and that is what the report reads.
A person reads the advertisement and its photographs. Usually back within 48 hours. Read a real listing report
Price history
Today $168,000 · modelled median at five years $187,298
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $162,728 to $228,248
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($140,587 to $265,149). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.
The verdict
A defensible case with reservations. Scores 65/100, ranking 37 of 104 in the over $100k band. Demand durability is the strongest input, risk resilience the weakest.
Running it costs about $10,750 a year (6.4% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $9,234 a year.
The model's five year median is $187,298, a +11.5% move, with the tenth percentile at $140,587.
Value calibrated to a thin record. Treat the level as provisional.
Evidence
Thin1 recorded sale
Off its peak
-22%
Value band
wide
At least one recorded transaction plus a source. Direction is sound, the exact level less so.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$9,234 a year all in, +11.5% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$168,000
Recorded sales
Every recorded observation, and when
2 rows on recordEvery row, with its price and note (2) ↓
latestautomarkets$235,000Context, excluded
Top of 2 recorded XB results; the other was $100,000 (an aggregate figure, not one sale)
Aug 2023Shannons$96,000Sold
XB GT manual described as a running project - the condition discount is most of the gap to a finished car
1 completed Australian sale of 2 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.
Score breakdown
Against the over $100k band median
104 cars in band · ink tick marks the medianOwnership economics30% of total
64/100-5
Scarcity25% of total
78/100+13
Demand durability20% of total
92/100+14
Liquidity15% of total
32/100even
Risk resilience10% of total
28/100-6
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 65/100. Medians are computed live from the 104 cars currently in the over $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
64/100Baseline80 pts
− 6.4% of value a year to run-16 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)64 pts
Scarcity25% weight
78/100Baseline62 pts
+ 949 GT hardtops built, the Mad Max shape+16 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)78 pts
Demand durability20% weight
92/100Baseline66 pts
+ Interceptor association gives it reach well beyond the usual Australian buyer+18 pts
+ Hardtop shape is the most wanted Falcon body+8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)92 pts
Liquidity15% weight
32/100Baseline26 pts
+ 84 days on market+10 pts
− Thin sample of recorded results-4 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)32 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
28/100Baseline58 pts
− Replica and tribute Interceptors are everywhere-20 pts
− Rust in hardtop-specific areas-10 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)28 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.
What it costs to own · about 2,500 km a year
Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$10,750a year
Share of value per year
6.4%
Scheduled servicing$2,80026%
Tyres, annualised$1,15011%
Registration and CTP$8007%
Insurance$2,60024%
Sinking fund (failure table)$3,40032%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$174,720
Running costs × 5 years$53,750
Median exit, net of selling cost$182,298
All-in annualised over 5 years$9,234/yr
Share of value per year5.5%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
7.0%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
+2.2%a year
The projection falls 4.8 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$168,000
Stamp duty$6,720
Running costs x 5 years$53,750
Selling cost at exit, 3.0% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$235,478
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.
Specification
Engine5.8L V8 (351 Cleveland)
Power / torque216 kW / 515 Nm
0-100 km/h7.6 s
Transmission4sp manual
DriveRWD
Kerb weight1,580 kg
Built worldwide949
Delivered to Australia949
Effective AU survivors520
Australian sales / year8
Typical days on market84 days
Launch price$5,800
What moves the price on this model
Colour hierarchy
Yellow Blaze+6%
Apollo Blue+5%
Polar White+2%
Options
Matching numbers+12%
Factory sunroof (rare)+5%
Odometer sensitivity±5% per 10,000 km vs 70,000 km
Applied on top of these
Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.
Projected value in five years
Projected value at five years
$187,298
+11.5% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $168,000.
Even odds it lands between $162,728 and $228,248.
$140,587 lowhigh $265,149
The shaded range is even money and 40% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A stronger five year outlook than 63% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: +$19,298 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $53,750.
Duty and expected selling costs: $11,720.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $46,170, or $9,234 a year.
The projected value rise offsets part of the running cost. It does not make the car free to own.
The case for and against
The case for
The Mad Max shape, which gives it international recognition no other Australian car has. 949 GT hardtops built and recorded results have reached $235,000.
The case against
Only two recorded auction results underpin the average, so the figure is thin. Replicas are abundant and the premium sits entirely on originality. The value also rests on an average of just two recorded results spanning $100,000 to $235,000, and the Hardtop is the dearer body within the XB range, so the midpoint of that pair is a weak basis for this particular car.
Known faults and risks
Risk 1Replica versus genuine GT verification
Risk 2Hardtop rust
Risk 3Very thin recorded sample
Genuine-GT verificationdocumentation
Hardtop rust repair$26,000
Driveline rebuild$18,000
Similar cars, and what they cost to run
This page prices the model.
The report prices the car in the advertisement.
The report prices the car in the advertisement.
Send the link. A person reads the advertisement and its photographs and sends back what that Ford Falcon GT 351 Hardtop is worth, what to offer and when to walk away, with five years of costs at the distance you drive.
The evidence on this model is thin and the report says so on its cover. Read a complete one on a real car first. Seventeen sections, no account, nothing to pay.
This model, today$168,000
Half of sales are further out than$18,781
The report$249
75×
the price of the report: what half of real sales of this model sit further from this page's number than, on this car
Watch this model
Told when the next one is called.
One line of email when this desk publishes a call on a Ford Falcon GT 351 Hardtop, or records a new Australian sale of one. Nothing else, no schedule, and on a quiet model you may hear nothing for months, which is itself worth knowing about a car you are chasing.
Free. One address, one model, and no account.