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Price opinion from advertisements and recorded sales. Not an inspection or a certified valuation.
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Reference photograph of a Ford Falcon GT 351
Valuation · Ford · XY · 1970-71

Ford Falcon GT 351

5.8L V8 (351 Cleveland) · 224 kW / 515 Nm · 4sp manual (Top Loader) · RWD
BUYRated within the over $100k band · 23 of 104 at this money
Model value
$195,000
Must gain each year to break even
+6.0%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
68/100
Scored against the over $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Thin
One to three recorded Australian sales
$195,000
$178,642 lowhigh $284,701
Calibrated to a thin record
$129,990low
$895,000high
197 verified XY GT and GT-HO sales range $129,990-$895,000 (australianmusclecarsales.com.au). Trade Unique Cars valuer Cliff Chambers puts the GT range at $45,000-$175,000, with one auction result at $250,000

Looking at a Falcon GT for sale?

Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.

Should make, typical example
$195,000
At about 60,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.

Odometer only. Colour, options, history, condition and the photographs move it further, and that is what the report reads.

A person reads the advertisement and its photographs. Usually back within 48 hours. Read a real listing report

Price history

Today $195,000 · modelled median at five years $219,475
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $197,997 to $253,784
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($178,642 to $284,701). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.

The verdict

Strong within its price band. Scores 68/100, ranking 23 of 104 in the over $100k band. Demand durability is the strongest input, risk resilience the weakest.
Running it costs about $10,350 a year (5.3% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $7,975 a year.
The model's five year median is $219,475, a +12.6% move, with the tenth percentile at $178,642.
Value calibrated to a thin record. Treat the level as provisional.
Evidence
Thin3 recorded sales
Off its peak
-20%
Value band
wide
Multiple recorded transactions plus an aggregate source. Treat the level as reliable.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$7,975 a year all in, +12.6% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$195,000

Recorded sales

Every recorded observation, and when
4 rows on record
$310k$241k$172k
2023202420252026
the value this record published, year by yearnow $195ksoldcontext, excluded
Every row, with its price and note (4) ↓
Library value against the sold record
3 sales · median $232,000
Value $195,000
$187,000$295,000
Jun 2026Seven82Motors$265,000Context, excluded
1970 XY GT sedan, a ONE-OF-ONE specification with a factory sunroof - provenance rather than a comparable, and excluded from this record. Matching-numbers block rebuilt as a 393ci stroker and the original ID plate removed from the car. Hammer before buyer's premium
Apr 2026Collecting Cars$187,000Sold
SOLD. 1 Apr 2026, Wodonga VIC, 92,243km indicated and not warranted. MATCHING NUMBERS with a deluxe ACCHS report, built at Broadmeadows and sold new by Jack Brabham Ford, Bankstown on 17 May 1971. Yellow Ochre, 351 Cleveland. LEFT THE FACTORY AN AUTOMATIC and now runs a four-speed manual; the large tank was also swapped for a smaller one. Resprayed in its original colour, small rust spots in both front doors, roof lining torn, currently unregistered
Nov 2022Shannons$232,000Sold
XY GT sedan at the Spring timed auction
Aug 2022Shannons$295,000Sold
XY GT manual sedan, restored, 38 bids at the Winter timed auction
3 completed Australian sales of 4 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.

Score breakdown

Against the over $100k band median
104 cars in band · ink tick marks the median
Ownership economics30% of total
67/100-2
Scarcity25% of total
82/100+17
Demand durability20% of total
84/100+6
Liquidity15% of total
48/100+16
Risk resilience10% of total
32/100-2
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 68/100. Medians are computed live from the 104 cars currently in the over $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
67/100
Baseline80 pts
− 5.3% of value a year to run-13 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)67 pts
Scarcity25% weight
82/100
Baseline60 pts
+ 1,557 built and roughly 900 thought to survive+14 pts
+ Shares the shape and drivetrain of the Phase III at a fraction of the money+8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)82 pts
Demand durability20% weight
84/100
Baseline62 pts
+ Drawn along in the market wake of the GT-HO+14 pts
+ Bathurst-era Falcon GT badge carries its own following+8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)84 pts
Liquidity15% weight
48/100
Baseline30 pts
+ 72 days on market+12 pts
+ 14 sales a year through specialist channels+6 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)48 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
32/100
Baseline60 pts
− Tribute and re-shelled cars are common and heavily discounted-18 pts
− Rust in the usual Falcon areas-10 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)32 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.

What it costs to own · about 2,500 km a year

Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$10,350a year
Share of value per year
5.3%
Scheduled servicing$2,80027%
Tyres, annualised$1,15011%
Registration and CTP$8008%
Insurance$2,40023%
Sinking fund (failure table)$3,20031%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$202,800
Running costs × 5 years$51,750
Median exit, net of selling cost$214,675
All-in annualised over 5 years$7,975/yr
Share of value per year4.1%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
6.0%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
+2.4%a year
The projection falls 3.6 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$195,000
Stamp duty$7,800
Running costs x 5 years$51,750
Selling cost at exit, 2.5% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$260,974
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.

Specification

Engine5.8L V8 (351 Cleveland)
Power / torque224 kW / 515 Nm
0-100 km/h7.2 s
Transmission4sp manual (Top Loader)
DriveRWD
Kerb weight1,520 kg
Built worldwide1,557
Delivered to Australia1,557
Effective AU survivors900
Australian sales / year14
Typical days on market72 days
Launch price$4,650

What moves the price on this model

Colour hierarchy
Vermilion Fire+5%
Yellow Glo+7%
Silver Fox-2%
Options
Matching numbers 351 and Top Loader+12%
Original build documentation+8%
Odometer sensitivity±5.5% per 10,000 km vs 60,000 km
Applied on top of these

Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.

Projected value in five years

Projected value at five years
$219,475
+12.6% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $195,000.
Even odds it lands between $197,997 and $253,784.
$178,642 lowhigh $284,701
The shaded range is even money and 28% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A stronger five year outlook than 65% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: +$24,475 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $51,750.
Duty and expected selling costs: $12,600.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $39,875, or $7,975 a year.
The projected value rise offsets part of the running cost. It does not make the car free to own.

The case for and against

The case for

The Phase III's sibling, sharing the shape, the 351 and the Top Loader, at roughly a fifth of the money. 1,557 built against 300 Phase IIIs, so genuine cars are findable.

The case against

Tribute cars are an accepted and openly traded part of this market, which makes verification essential. A GT is not an HO and the gap does not close.

Known faults and risks

Risk 1Verifying a genuine GT against a tribute or re-shell
Risk 2Rust in floors, sills and rear quarters
Risk 3Matching-numbers verification
Body and rust inspectiondocumentation
Full respray$22,000
Driveline rebuild$18,000

Similar cars, and what they cost to run

Evidence behind this valueThin · 3 recorded sales
Carried value
$195,000
Historical price
2016 · $95,0002026 · $195,000
Thin
Multiple recorded transactions plus an aggregate source. Treat the level as reliable.
Four Australian lots, three of them counted, and the value was below every one of them

This record carried $165,000 against results of $232,000, $265,000 and $295,000. That is not a conservative value, it is a broken one, and the arrival of a fourth lot is what surfaced it.

Read the rest of the evidence notes (4 more)
The $265,000 result is excluded and should always have been

It is described as a one-of-one specification with a factory sunroof. A single car with a unique option list is provenance, not a comparable, and this library carries those as excluded rows.

What is left is three counted Australian results and a clear shape

Two restored Shannons sedans in 2022 at $295,000 in August and $232,000 in November. Then, on 1 April 2026, a matching-numbers Yellow Ochre car with a deluxe ACCHS report made $187,000 at Wodonga.

Read what that car is before reading the fall

It left Broadmeadows as an AUTOMATIC and now runs a four-speed manual. The large tank has been swapped out. There is rust in both front doors, the roof lining is torn, and it is unregistered. A GT that has had its transmission changed is not the car the two 2022 lots were. So the gap between $232,000 and $187,000 is part market and part specification, and three results cannot separate them.

The value moves from $165,000 to $195,000

Above the April 2026 result, because that car is a compromised example and it still cleared $187,000, and below the 2022 Shannons pair, because the market has plainly come off that level and those cars were restored and original. SOURCING: one auction lot page read in full, plus three aggregator-surfaced results.

This page prices the model.
The report prices the car in the advertisement.

Send the link. A person reads the advertisement and its photographs and sends back what that Ford Falcon GT 351 is worth, what to offer and when to walk away, with five years of costs at the distance you drive.

Read a real listing report

The evidence on this model is thin and the report says so on its cover. Read a complete one on a real car first. Seventeen sections, no account, nothing to pay.

This model, today$195,000
Half of sales are further out than$21,799
The report$249
88×
the price of the report: what half of real sales of this model sit further from this page's number than, on this car
Watch this model
Told when the next one is called.

One line of email when this desk publishes a call on a Ford Falcon GT 351, or records a new Australian sale of one. Nothing else, no schedule, and on a quiet model you may hear nothing for months, which is itself worth knowing about a car you are chasing.

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Falcon GT for sale?Priced by a person, $249