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Price opinion from advertisements and recorded sales. Not an inspection or a certified valuation.
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Reference photograph of a Ford Falcon GT GT Hardtop
Valuation · Ford · XA · 1972-73

Ford Falcon GT GT Hardtop

5.8L V8 (351 Cleveland) · 224 kW / 515 Nm · 4sp manual · RWD
CONSIDERRated within the over $100k band · 44 of 104 at this money
Model value
$150,000
Must gain each year to break even
+6.5%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
62/100
Scored against the over $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Thin
One to three recorded Australian sales
$150,000
$127,361 lowhigh $254,432
Calibrated to a thin record
Two results: $165,500 (Shannons, May 2022, rebodied) and $111,933 (Burns & Co, Jun 2025, project)

Looking at a Falcon GT for sale?

Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.

Should make, typical example
$150,000
At about 30,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.

Odometer only. Colour, options, history, condition and the photographs move it further, and that is what the report reads.

A person reads the advertisement and its photographs. Usually back within 48 hours. Read a real listing report

Price history

Today $150,000 · modelled median at five years $180,731
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $152,658 to $219,498
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($127,361 to $254,432). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.

The verdict

A defensible case with reservations. Scores 62/100, ranking 44 of 104 in the over $100k band. Demand durability is the strongest input, ownership economics the weakest.
Running it costs about $9,430 a year (6.3% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $4,804 a year.
The model's five year median is $180,731, a +20.5% move, with the tenth percentile at $127,361.
Value calibrated to a thin record. Treat the level as provisional.
Evidence
Thin2 recorded sales
Off its peak
at peak
Value band
wide
At least one recorded transaction plus a source. Direction is sound, the exact level less so.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$4,804 a year all in, +20.5% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$150,000

Recorded sales

Every recorded observation, and when
2 rows on record
$173k$139k$104k
2023202420252026
the value this record published, year by yearnow $150ksold
Every row, with its price and note (2) ↓
Library value against the sold record
2 sales · median $138,717
Value $150,000
$111,933$165,500
Jun 2025Burns & Co$111,933Sold
Project-condition automatic Hardtop; figure includes the buyer's premium - a running project sets a floor, not a level
May 2022Shannons$165,500Sold
Restored Hardtop, reported as RE-BODIED - the rebody discount applies, so a straight car sits above this figure
2 completed Australian sales of 2 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.

Score breakdown

Against the over $100k band median
104 cars in band · ink tick marks the median
Ownership economics30% of total
48/100-21
Scarcity25% of total
66/100+1
Demand durability20% of total
86/100+8
Liquidity15% of total
54/100+22
Risk resilience10% of total
58/100+24
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 62/100. Medians are computed live from the 104 cars currently in the over $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
48/100
Baseline55 pts
− 6.3% of value a year to run-7 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)48 pts
Scarcity25% weight
66/100
Baseline40 pts
+ 891 Hardtops built, all Australian-delivered+26 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)66 pts
Demand durability20% weight
86/100
Baseline52 pts
+ Falcon GT demand proven measured on the XW and XY+24 pts
+ The Moffat Bathurst body style+10 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)86 pts
Liquidity15% weight
54/100
Baseline20 pts
+ 65 days on market+26 pts
+ Trades steadily when priced against the sedan gap+8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)54 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
58/100
Baseline82 pts
− Rebodies and sedan-to-Hardtop conversions in circulation-16 pts
− Rust in the usual XA structures-8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)58 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.

What it costs to own · about 2,500 km a year

Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$9,430a year
Share of value per year
6.3%
Scheduled servicing$2,80030%
Tyres, annualised$1,15012%
Registration and CTP$7808%
Insurance$1,70018%
Sinking fund (failure table)$3,00032%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$156,000
Running costs × 5 years$47,150
Median exit, net of selling cost$179,131
All-in annualised over 5 years$4,804/yr
Share of value per year3.2%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
6.5%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
+3.8%a year
The projection falls 2.7 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$150,000
Stamp duty$6,000
Running costs x 5 years$47,150
Selling cost at exit, 1.1% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$205,340
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.

Specification

Engine5.8L V8 (351 Cleveland)
Power / torque224 kW / 515 Nm
0-100 km/h8 s
Transmission4sp manual
DriveRWD
Kerb weight1,560 kg
Built worldwide891
Delivered to Australia891
Effective AU survivors250
Australian sales / year2
Typical days on market65 days
Launch price$5,300

What moves the price on this model

Colour hierarchy
Yellow Fire+5%
Wild Violet+6%
Red Pepper+4%
Options
Matching-numbers 351 Cleveland+15%
Factory four-speed+8%
Build sheet and ID plates verified+10%
Odometer sensitivity±1.6% per 10,000 km vs 30,000 km
Applied on top of these

Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.

Projected value in five years

Projected value at five years
$180,731
+20.5% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $150,000.
Even odds it lands between $152,658 and $219,498.
$127,361 lowhigh $254,432
The shaded range is even money and 44% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A stronger five year outlook than 86% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: +$30,731 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $47,150.
Duty and expected selling costs: $7,600.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $24,020, or $4,804 a year.
The projected value rise offsets part of the running cost. It does not make the car free to own.

The case for and against

The case for

The affordable end of genuine Falcon GT Hardtop ownership, with the same 351 Cleveland as the million-dollar Phase cars and a market anchored by measured XW and XY evidence above it.

The case against

Both recorded sales carry asterisks - one rebodied, one a project - so the value of a straight car rests on interpolation; and authentication risk in this market is the highest in the Australian classic trade.

Known faults and risks

Risk 1Rebody and conversion authentication
Risk 2Rust in plenum, sills and turrets
Risk 3Project cars flattering the apparent entry price
Cleveland rebuild$14,000
Structural rust repair$18,000
Brake system overhaul$4,000

Similar cars, and what they cost to run

Evidence behind this valueThin · 2 recorded sales
Carried value
$150,000
Historical price
2016 · $92,0002026 · $150,000
Thin
At least one recorded transaction plus a source. Direction is sound, the exact level less so.
Two sales, both carrying caveats that matter

A restored Hardtop made $165,500 at the May 2022 Shannons Autumn auction - reported as re-bodied, so a straight-shell car sits above it - and a project-condition automatic made $111,933 at Burns & Co in June 2025, a figure that includes the buyer's premium and prices unfinished work. Between a rebodied peak-market result and a mid-2025 project floor, a sound genuine four-speed Hardtop in 2026 sits where this value puts it.

Read the rest of the evidence notes (2 more)
Why the hardtop

891 built against thousands of sedans, the body Moffat took to Bathurst, and the shape the market pays for - the sedan trades a clear step below and is not what this entry prices.

The supercar-scare footnote

The XA GT exists because the GT-HO Phase IV died in the 1972 panic, and the four Phase IV cars sit in a provenance market of their own that no GT result touches.

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The report prices the car in the advertisement.

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This model, today$150,000
Half of sales are further out than$16,769
The report$249
67×
the price of the report: what half of real sales of this model sit further from this page's number than, on this car
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