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Price opinion from advertisements and recorded sales. Not an inspection or a certified valuation.
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Reference photograph of a Ford Falcon GT 351
Valuation · Ford · XW · 1969-70

Ford Falcon GT 351

5.8L V8 (351 Windsor) · 216 kW / 515 Nm · 4sp manual (Top Loader) · RWD
CONSIDERRated within the over $100k band · 58 of 104 at this money
Model value
$135,000
Must gain each year to break even
+7.8%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
60/100
Scored against the over $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Measured
Four or more recorded Australian sales
$135,000
$112,899 lowhigh $176,119
Calibrated to recorded sales
Record $500,000 at Lloyds. GT-HO results shown for scale

Looking at a Falcon GT for sale?

Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.

Should make, typical example
$135,000
At about 65,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.

Odometer only. Colour, options, history, condition and the photographs move it further, and that is what the report reads.

A person reads the advertisement and its photographs. Usually back within 48 hours. Read a real listing report

Price history

Today $135,000 · modelled median at five years $141,506
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $126,459 to $159,712
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($112,899 to $176,119). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.

The verdict

A defensible case with reservations. Scores 60/100, ranking 58 of 104 in the over $100k band. Demand durability is the strongest input, risk resilience the weakest.
Running it costs about $10,050 a year (7.4% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $10,629 a year.
The model's five year median is $141,506, a +4.8% move, with the tenth percentile at $112,899.
Value calibrated to recorded sales.
Evidence
Measured5 recorded sales
Off its peak
-29%
Value band
moderate
Multiple recorded transactions plus an aggregate source. Treat the level as reliable.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$10,629 a year all in, +4.8% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$135,000

Recorded sales

Every recorded observation, and when
5 rows on record
$200k$155k$110k
2021202220232024202520262027
the value this record published, year by yearnow $135ksold1 row is undated and is not plotted
Every row, with its price and note (5) ↓
Library value against the sold record
5 sales · median $162,500
Value $135,000
$120,000$500,000
recentLloyds$500,000Sold
Record for the model. One owner, 351 with Top Loader, originally sold by Anderson Ford Adelaide
Aug 2026Collecting Cars$166,000Sold
The resolved auction call from this site's own track record - predicted $112,860-$147,825, a 23 per cent miss
Aug 2023Shannons$160,000Sold
XW GT automatic, restored, Winter timed auction
Aug 2022Shannons$120,000Sold
XW GT automatic sedan at the Winter timed auction
Apr 2021Shannons$162,500Sold
XW GT sedan, lot 157, four-speed manual, restored
5 completed Australian sales of 5 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.

Score breakdown

Against the over $100k band median
104 cars in band · ink tick marks the median
Ownership economics30% of total
62/100-7
Scarcity25% of total
67/100+2
Demand durability20% of total
72/100-6
Liquidity15% of total
43/100+11
Risk resilience10% of total
34/100even
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 60/100. Medians are computed live from the 104 cars currently in the over $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
62/100
Baseline80 pts
− 7.4% of value a year to run-18 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)62 pts
Scarcity25% weight
67/100
Baseline55 pts
+ 2,287 built, the first Falcon GT to carry the 351+12 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)67 pts
Demand durability20% weight
72/100
Baseline56 pts
+ Overshadowed by the XY, which suppresses and supports it at once+10 pts
+ Genuine Bathurst-era provenance+6 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)72 pts
Liquidity15% weight
43/100
Baseline28 pts
+ 78 days on market+10 pts
+ 10 sales a year+5 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)43 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
34/100
Baseline60 pts
− Tribute cars common-16 pts
− Rust-10 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)34 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.

What it costs to own · about 2,500 km a year

Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$10,050a year
Share of value per year
7.4%
Scheduled servicing$2,80028%
Tyres, annualised$1,15011%
Registration and CTP$8008%
Insurance$2,10021%
Sinking fund (failure table)$3,20032%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$140,400
Running costs × 5 years$50,250
Median exit, net of selling cost$137,506
All-in annualised over 5 years$10,629/yr
Share of value per year7.9%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
7.8%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
+0.9%a year
The projection falls 6.8 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$135,000
Stamp duty$5,400
Running costs x 5 years$50,250
Selling cost at exit, 3.0% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$196,471
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.

Specification

Engine5.8L V8 (351 Windsor)
Power / torque216 kW / 515 Nm
0-100 km/h7.5 s
Transmission4sp manual (Top Loader)
DriveRWD
Kerb weight1,510 kg
Built worldwide2,287
Delivered to Australia2,287
Effective AU survivors1,200
Australian sales / year10
Typical days on market78 days
Launch price$4,250

What moves the price on this model

Colour hierarchy
Candy Apple Red+5%
Grecian Gold+4%
Diamond White+2%
Options
Matching numbers 351 and Top Loader+12%
Original build documentation+8%
Odometer sensitivity±5% per 10,000 km vs 65,000 km
Applied on top of these

Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.

Projected value in five years

Projected value at five years
$141,506
+4.8% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $135,000.
Even odds it lands between $126,459 and $159,712.
$112,899 lowhigh $176,119
The shaded range is even money and 26% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A weaker five year outlook than 53% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: +$6,506 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $50,250.
Duty and expected selling costs: $9,400.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $53,145, or $10,629 a year.
The projected value rise offsets part of the running cost. It does not make the car free to own.

The case for and against

The case for

The first 351 Falcon GT and the direct predecessor to the XY. A record $500,000 result shows the ceiling is real for an exceptional car.

The case against

XWs typically will not pull the numbers an equivalent XY does, and the market treats the XY shape as the definitive one.

Known faults and risks

Risk 1Tribute verification
Risk 2Rust
Risk 3Windsor versus Cleveland engine confusion
Body and rust inspectiondocumentation
Full respray$22,000
Driveline rebuild$17,000

Similar cars, and what they cost to run

Evidence behind this valueMeasured · 5 recorded sales
Carried value
$135,000
Historical price
2016 · $72,0002026 · $135,000
Measured
Multiple recorded transactions plus an aggregate source. Treat the level as reliable.

Record result $500,000 at Lloyds for a one-owner 351 with Top Loader, originally sold by Anderson Ford Adelaide. XWs typically trade below the equivalent XY. For scale, the dearer GT-HO versions of the same body are separate cars and sell well above a standard GT: a Phase I made $190,000 at Shannons in June 2021, a Phase II $373,500 in September 2021 and an earlier GT-HO $215,000 in August 2017, while a Phase II passed in at a $180,000-$220,000 estimate in May 2017. Those figures are not comparables for a standard GT and are recorded only to show the spread the HO badge commands within the XW range.

Why this value sits below both recorded sales

The $295,000 and $232,000 results are both from 2022, the top of the Australian muscle market, and this library documents the unwind that followed rather than carrying a peak forward. The value is deliberately set about 29 per cent under the most recent result. If the next XY GT through a public lane beats it, that is the number that should move this one - not the two ahead of it.

Read the rest of the evidence notes (1 more)
June 2026 - the third result above this value

A 1970 XY GT sedan sold at Seven82Motors on 14 June 2026 for $265,000 at no reserve, hammer before premium. The paragraph above committed this value to moving if the next XY GT through a public lane beat it. It did, by 61 per cent, and the two 2022 results can no longer be set aside as a peak pair. Two features argue against taking $265,000 at face value: the car is a one-of-one specification with a factory sunroof, and its matching-numbers block has been rebuilt as a 393ci stroker, so it is neither an ordinary car nor a factory-specification one. Neither accounts for a 61 per cent gap on its own. This value is under review and should be expected to rise.

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The report prices the car in the advertisement.

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This model, today$135,000
Half of sales are further out than$15,092
The report$249
61×
the price of the report: what half of real sales of this model sit further from this page's number than, on this car
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